15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)

[Nightwish]

This reminds me a bit of the 30/60 discussion in the other hand.

I have no real read on the opponents. What should I do?


Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Nightwish is CO with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="CC3333">Nightwish 3-bets</font>, Button calls, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG caps</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls, Nightwish calls, Button calls.

Flop: (18.66 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MP2 calls

[1800GAMBLER]

Every single day i play the 15 i think the 3 bet preflop sucks more and more yet seems so standard. It just doesn't have a good chance of getting rid of the blinds (it really sucks in this case because of the 2 limpers), the players are (in this case) correctly loose postflop and we aren't dominating much yet have a good risk of a big pair. I'd consider this a simple call.

Fold the flop, i really couldn't care about my 20:1 odds because my 9 isn't good 100% of the time and [censored] taking this to showdown. Oh yea, you aren't closing the action, this is a v. easy fold.

White Stripes - Jack the Ripper.

[DcifrThs]

20.66:1 on the call...21.66:1 in my mind b/c the button has done nothing but call the whole time and there's nothing to suggest he won't call here nor does it seem he'll raise. if he does though, its likely you won't be able to call the 2 or 3 back. that doesn't seem likely though so i call here.

UTG limped and capped, its like 5:1 or less that he's got aa in my mind because whenever i see that given the action it is almost always UTG saying "its gunna get capped anyway so let me do it for deception."

also, assuming utg has a great hand it can be AKs or AKo along w/ aa. QQ doesn't seem too likely from utg and you should only fear it from MP2. if MP2 is a very good player then QQ certainly a likely hand, but we don't see many great players on party now do we [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] ...

anyways, if you hit on the turn you'll likely collect many bets in addition to the pot which is now 20.66bbs and likely 22.66 by the turn. also, when you lose many bets after hitting you can at most lose 8bbs. also, you can fold on the turn when you miss.

therefore, all things considered, i call.

-Barron

[rory]

I agree-- I don't do the raising to isolate with smaller pocket pairs anymore at the Party 15/30. It doesn't work.

-rory

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree-- I don't do the raising to isolate with smaller pocket pairs anymore at the Party 15/30. It doesn't work.

-rory

[/ QUOTE ]

what about the flop?
-Barron

[James282]

Your flop analysis is correct.
-James

[1800GAMBLER]

Run the math that you are only good 1 in 6 times when you hit and button raises 50% - 20%. It's a fold. Give yourself ~6SBs (when not raised) in implied odds too.

The fact that the button gets the raise button on his screen here makes these long shot draws a fold. You want 22:1, say you are getting 20:1 he raises you are getting 10:1, he raiss 50% of the time 15:1, 30% 17:1. Given that you could get there and lose and lose more BBs makes this a fold.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
Every single day i play the 15 i think the 3 bet preflop sucks more and more yet seems so standard. It just doesn't have a good chance of getting rid of the blinds (it really sucks in this case because of the 2 limpers), the players are (in this case) correctly loose postflop and we aren't dominating much yet have a good risk of a big pair. I'd consider this a simple call.

Fold the flop, i really couldn't care about my 20:1 odds because my 9 isn't good 100% of the time and [censored] taking this to showdown.

White Stripes - Jack the Ripper.

[/ QUOTE ]

i totally agree with your preflop analysis. its also great b/c it "saves" a bet on the flop if you agree w/ me and call b/c the pot won't warrant it.

but in this case you can't just toss implied odds out the window and say i fold here.

despite the fact that whenever we disagree you turn out to be correct 80-90% of the time im sticking to my guns on this one. the turn is too easy to play if you miss your nine. if it hits the worst that can happen is you lose 6-8bb's..BUT that 6-8bb loss will happen so rarely given the action that its worth taking that risk in my mind. do you really see AA in utg's hand? since you do play that 15 game every day, do you aggree with my about 5:1 against aa FROM YOUR EXPERIENCE?? i often see that limp reraise/cap and it so often turns out to be a pair or JTs or something like that thinking its gunna get capped anyway and the person wants to gamble. so when you hit your nine and win you will likely win at least 3 bb's from those 2 so that's 6 plus the 10.5-11 thats already in there and it'll fall 1 in 22.5 times. and you'll win 34 or more bets when it does and holds up. (Assuming bet call raise fold call call. check check bet call call)

-Barron

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
Run the math that you are only good 1 in 6 times when you hit and button raises 50% - 20%. It's a fold. Give yourself ~6SBs (when not raised) in implied odds too.

The fact that the button gets the raise button on his screen here makes these long shot draws a fold. You want 22:1, say you are getting 20:1 he raises you are getting 10:1, he raiss 50% of the time 15:1, 30% 17:1. Given that you could get there and lose and lose more BBs makes this a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

first, i just pulled 1/6 out of nowhere and its likely less than that given how much more likely AK/AKs is than AA or QQ (not to mention JTs or small pair gambling) and that the button has done NOTHING but call. why would he suddnely raise here? its much less than 30% he'll raise in my mind.

-Barron

[1800GAMBLER]

Button called 3 cold. While this is party poker i'd imagine this gets raised about 20% of the time here.

I actually think the 5:1 behind figure is higher. Limpreraises are usually about AA 40% KK 20% QQ 10% AK 20% Phil Fan with 77 - 99 10%.

Regardless, even considering the chance we may hit our long shot draw and lose makes this a fold.

Lemon Jelly - Experiment Number 6.