5/10 turn decision QQ

Percussion · #1 12-09-2005, 03:42 PM

Villian is solid TAG winner @ the stars 5/10

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (7.40 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (4.70 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets, MP1 raises, Hero?

how often am I running into Ax of spades, A8 22 33 88?

imported_smoove · #2 12-09-2005, 03:54 PM

No other reads? As in how often he'd limp Axs and low-mid pocket pairs from EP? Edit: I don't think A8o is very likely. Maybe I'm weak, but I think I'm letting go right here.

Songwind · #3 12-09-2005, 04:37 PM

*grunch*
You say he's solid, and he liked the A (or has trips and wasn't scared of it). You don't have a draw except to trips (2 outs), if he didn't limp in with a low suited connector and already has the straight. You're only getting 7.7:1 pot odds to call. I fold.

imported_smoove · #4 12-09-2005, 04:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
*grunch*
You say he's solid, and he liked the A (or has trips and wasn't scared of it). You don't have a draw except to trips (2 outs), if he didn't limp in with a low suited connector and already has the straight. You're only getting 7.7:1 pot odds to call. I fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I could be wrong here, but I imagine the OP's issue is whether this guy is pulling a check raise bluff on him...putting Hero on TT-KK perhaps. But since Axs, 22, 33, and 88 are all at least plausible limping hands, I'm folding without a solid read that Villain has tried something tricky like this on more than one occasion.

suited aces · #5 12-09-2005, 06:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Villian is solid TAG winner @ the stars 5/10

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (7.40 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (4.70 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets, MP1 raises, Hero?

how often am I running into Ax of spades, A8 22 33 88?

[/ QUOTE ]

If this guy is a solid TAG, what are his plausible holdings that we're losing to given how the hand has played out up till now?

I would figure the likely range of hands that he could have that we are losing to would be AJo, AJ-ATs and 88. Anything else that beats us, you figure he would raise pre-flop or fold pre-flop.

So, at this point, we're most likely either losing to one of the above or ahead of a flush-draw.

That said, let's look at it another way for a minute. At this point, there's a little over 7 bb's in the pot. Let's assume, for simplicity's sake, that he's betting the river (regardless of whether he's currently ahead, he's semi-bluffing and hits, or he's semi-bluffing and misses). So, the pot is laying us 4:1 on a call down.

Given that, even if he's bluffing, he'll still suck out about 20% of the time, we need to be ahead on the turn about 25% of the time to break even. Is he bluffing at least 25% of the time on the turn? If he's a solid TAG, I think he might be on this board. Plus, I just hate laying down an overpair when an ace comes on the turn and someone could easily be semi-bluffing a flush draw.

Without a better read, I'd probably call the turn and call a non-club river and fold a club river. But then again, I have to admit that my line is pretty weak/passive.

imported_smoove · #6 12-09-2005, 06:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Villian is solid TAG winner @ the stars 5/10

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (7.40 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (4.70 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets, MP1 raises, Hero?

how often am I running into Ax of spades, A8 22 33 88?

[/ QUOTE ]

If this guy is a solid TAG, what are his plausible holdings that we're losing to given how the hand has played out up till now?

I would figure the likely range of hands that he could have that we are losing to would be AJo, AJ-ATs and 88.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think these are plausible because a solid TAG would have raised these. I do, however, think Axs is plausible.