40-80 Red Queens

[Bargon]

Table is good but not great. Villian is a little loose and will open-raise with a wide variety of hands in late position. My table image is pretty tight, maybe Uber-tight.

10 Handed, Folded around to cutoff who raises, I threebet Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] from the Big Blind.

Flop J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Hero bets, villian raises, Hero three bets, villian calls.

Turn
K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Hero Bets, Villian raises, Hero Calls

River
Blank

Hero Checks, Villian Bets, Hero?

Since I called the Turn, I was inclined to Call the River when the blank hit.

Is the Turn an easy Check, unless I was ready to fold to a raise?

Thanks!

[KeithF40]

What did you put your opponent on on the flop when he just called your three bet. If he sees you as a very tight player he has to put you on jacks through aces. Villian could easily have AJ, KJ, or maybe even a spade or straight draw if he is a somewhat aggressive player. This is a very tricky hand since its hard to know where you are at. The king would of only helped him if he had KJ, kings, or AK. Kings is not super likely since he didnt reraise preflop and if he had AK he played it very oddly on the flop. It doesnt look like the is going anywhere and I dont think that that king could of scared him off. The only bet you should make on the turn is for value so I think it is a very borderline decision. You being out of position doesnt help either as it further complicates matters. Villian must also be aware that you are not going to fold to a raise on the turn so the king must of helped him. If he had KJ he should of certainly raised you on the turn as would he with kings but as I said before that is not as likely. QT is also a possibility. You are obviously pretty commited to call on the turn but its very hard to think you are ahead now on the end. You are getting around 11 to 1 pot odds so it looks pretty hard to fold nwo but obviously your check on the river makes it very difficult for him to check behind you unless he has a really borderline hand that we just wants to showdown. I dont think an information/maybe hes bluffing call on the end is out of the question but I cant see how you could have the best hand right now. Id lean towards folding here unfortunately as you are only beating TT, AQ, QJ, AJ, and AT.

[bicyclekick]

I liek to under-represent my hands in these situations as I think you get the most when ahead and lose the least when behind.

[Brian R]

Keith very good post. Following your thinking why not fold the turn when raised? BK what do you mean when you "under-represent my hands in these situations as I think you get the most when ahead and lose the least when behind."?

Brian R

[shmahappens]

I can't imagine he means call the flop, and call down...
Though it has been done before...Will someday be done again - but that's the only thing I can see as 'under representing' a hand on this board.

[KeithF40]

Calling on the turn appears to be a rather borderline decision which can ultimately be solved by putting your opponent on a hand which seems to be the toughest problem in this hand. You are getting around 9 to 1 and you can give yourself all of the tens as outs for the win. AQ is a very unlikely holding for villian. The only way you are not going to take the entire pot if a ten falls is if villian is also holding a queen which seems extremely unlikely giving him raise on the turn. The only hand that he could have that contains a queen based on his play is QJ, KQ, or QQ. KQ would be a very odd raise on the flop, QQ would be odd raise on turn and also mathematically doesnt seem to probable as does any hand that contains a queen, and QJ seems improbable with the raise on the turn. The odds against you completing your straight are about 11 to 1. With the pot so big on the river I think you would probably get called which would result in implied pot odds of 10 to 1. If you give yourself one queen as an out you are 9 to 1 to make the hand which would make a call even without the extra gained bet on the end correct. Giving yourself both queens make you a 7.5 to 1 dog which makes a call the clear decision. Ultimately your call comes down to whether or not a queen will give you the best hand. I dont think you have much fold equity at this point plus I dont see a scary card that can come on the turn that wouldnt help your hand and that would scare him off his hand enough to make him fold.

[Bargon]

Thanks for the great responses.

Keith- really appreciate all the time you put into this hand for me.

As for what I put him on...

Pre flop- I put him on a A probably a suited A or a pocket pair. I didn't put him on AK because I thought he would cap it pre-flop.

The flop was not a great one for me, but not horrible either. If it was 4 or 5 handed, I'd hate my hand. When he popped me on the turn, I put him on a set. Therefore, I thought I had about 6 outs (2 Qs and 4 10s).

When I whiffed the river I was caught in one of those situations where the odds seemed right to call.