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#11
10-04-2005, 04:52 PM
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Re: Make this EV- call?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] easy fold. it'd be nice to know the approx. value of the freeroll seat, but it's an easy fold regardless. [/ QUOTE ] I think the hero is still far enough away from the money that cEV equals $EV. I thought about that as well but I don't think money comes into play yet. [/ QUOTE ] it's kinda unclear. is it something like top 20 pay + top 4 get wsop or top 4 get wsop + cash and that's it? 
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#12
10-04-2005, 04:53 PM
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Re: Make this EV- call?
Less than 300 entrants in the Freeroll, once a month from now til June.
Some cash added aswell. I'm not asking if the hand is EV--, I know it is. I'm wondering if the intangibles make it a plausible call: Table leaves my blinds alone. Enough chips to pick my next spot. Players less likely to bluff me (unpredictability). These are all worth something EV wise. I likely have two live cards. Many of my best performances include a marginal play such as this at a critical time for my stack. I did infact go on to win this tournament after a long berating by the table. I am wondering is there something here or am I on drugs.
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#13
10-04-2005, 05:42 PM
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Re: Make this EV- call?
There is something here and I see what you're saying. Besides the reasons you mentioned, consider the idea that you may want to take a slightly -EV gamble now to avoid having to take an even worse one later.
You will have a better chance to stay alive if you wait to steal a lot from LP, but you'll be so short next round I'd open push 2-3 times, which is still going to have a decent chance of getting looked up. Plus, with 11,800 for 18,600 is about 1.57 to 1 odds; you only have to win about 39% of the time to break even. With his range, it's probably still -EV, but perhaps not so much so to outweigh the other factors. I can't tell you for sure if it is a reasonable call or not. But part of the reason we do things like this is to find out that information, to learn about the game.
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#14
10-04-2005, 08:04 PM
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Re: Make this EV- call?
I am going to go out on a limb here and say I like the call. With a tilt push in a $10 MTT you might even be ahead. You are going to have to flip a coin sooner or later anyway and winning this toss, or call with marginal odds, has the advantages you mentioned in your later post.
What did he have?
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#15
10-04-2005, 08:06 PM
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Re: Make this EV- call?
Villain showed a8 offsuit and hero flopped the 3.
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