Bubble A9 hand

[mlagoo]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter

UTG (t1595)
Button (t2180)
SB (t2435)
Hero (t1790)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t500</font>, Hero Pushes for t1790.


Thoughts? He had raised my BB the two previous orbits, and seemed to have made the transition to the bubble well. Should I just let this one go, or is it a good time to make a stand?

Without a strong read, I fold this and wait for a better spot. Button has bet about 25% of his stack and is getting slightly better than 2.5:1 on the call if you push over the top of him. I figure I'm behind too many hands in his range, but perhaps I'm just a weak/tight donk.

However, I might push this if the blinds were going up in the next hand or two.

[downtown]

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that I like it, and that I would play it the same way. Though in my one set of 8 22s last night I finished 2nd in one game 1st tells me, "You're good, but you sure do push a lot."

I like it way more than a stop n go. I think you're rarely dominated here, though I guess it's possible. If you let the raiser take a walk here it's gonna be harder for you to take a stand when the blinds go up again. The only time I would lay this down is if the 2 players to my left were really tight and i was easily pwning their blinds.

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Without a strong read, I fold this and wait for a better spot. Button has bet about 25% of his stack and is getting slightly better than 2.5:1 on the call if you push over the top of him.

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[downtown]

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Without a strong read, I fold this and wait for a better spot. Button has bet about 25% of his stack and is getting slightly better than 2.5:1 on the call if you push over the top of him.

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FWIW, at least through the 33s and unless I know otherwise, I hate assuming my opponent is a thinking player who correctly takes his or her odds into consideration. We've all seen enough bad folds to know this.

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Without a strong read, I fold this and wait for a better spot. Button has bet about 25% of his stack and is getting slightly better than 2.5:1 on the call if you push over the top of him.

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FWIW, at least through the 33s and unless I know otherwise, I hate assuming my opponent is a thinking player who correctly takes his or her odds into consideration. We've all seen enough bad folds to know this.

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I think this is pretty strongly offset by the fact that people in the 11s and 22s just like to call a lot, especially after they've raised. Also, they can see a small pet and a big pot; they're very aware of that. They may not have insta-call when getting better than 2-1 on an AI that NL cash game players have, but theirs might be even looser. The exception to this is if he 1) has total garbage like 9/2 or worse and 2) is a player that forgets that 9/2 wins sometimes.

I don't think we should be playing expecting bad folds; I think we should just be happy when we get them and POed when we see another shorty get one.

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FWIW, at least through the 33s and unless I know otherwise, I hate assuming my opponent is a thinking player who correctly takes his or her odds into consideration. We've all seen enough bad folds to know this.

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Fair enough and I see your point. Still (and perhaps this is a leak in my own game) I don't like making this push with ~9BB's if the blinds aren't going up for a couple more orbits. In my own mind its close and I don't have the luxury of running this through SNGPT from work, but I digress. If I push over the top here I'm assuming this is going to a showdown. Yes, I've seen plenty of bad folds at the lower limits, but based on that assumption alone and the stack sizes, I'd still fold.

Wait for a better spot where I can be first to act and steal blinds aggressively, IMO. Like I said, its close for me instinctively in my mind, but I'd almost rather push with any two from the SB or button next orbit than call here with ~9BB's.

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He had raised my BB the two previous orbits

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If the OP has a read that the button is raising his blind with a very loose range, its a clear push for me. I am looking at things from a more mathematical perspective without any reads.