silly river bet against loose/passive?

[Wynton]

Another post in my continuing effort to discover when to bet rivers against loose/passive types.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: (2.40 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP checks.

Turn: (1.20 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP calls.

River: (3.20 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP calls.

Final Pot: 5.20 BB

[bank]

I check/fold this river against an LP.

[Nietzsche]

[ QUOTE ]
I check/fold this river against an LP.

[/ QUOTE ]

[cartman]

I might even check-fold the turn here against a true loose passive. I would definitely check-fold the river.

Cartman

[Wynton]

Ok, I almost didn't post this hand at all because the river bet really looked obviously bad, in retrospect.

But then the results made me wonder. It turned out my hand was actually good, as villain had called down with K high. I was pretty sure that I just got lucky here, but wanted quick verification that it's relatively unusual for a LP to be calling down with King high.

[cartman]

[ QUOTE ]
I was pretty sure that I just got lucky here, but wanted quick verification that it's relatively unusual for a LP to be calling down with King high.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is the main issue here. It is uncommon only because the board is Ace high. These guys will call with some unfathomable stuff when the board is low. There are primary issues I think.

One is that the hands that are worse than yours comprise a small fraction of his range of holding that will call a bet. In other words even if you can beat a few of the hands he will call the river with, the vast majority of the time you get called you will lose.

The other issue is that the fact that he is passive means that if you check to him, he will probably only bet with hands that have you beat so you can confidently fold. When your hand is best he will almost always check behind.

I think betting the river here is like laying your balls on the table and handing him a hammer--nothing good can come from it.

Cartman

[Nietzsche]

[ QUOTE ]

I think betting the river here is like laying your balls on the table and handing him a hammer--nothing good can come from it.

[/ QUOTE ]
I can relate it now [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I don't think my ex would agree with the last part though [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[Wynton]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I think betting the river here is like laying your balls on the table and handing him a hammer--nothing good can come from it.

[/ QUOTE ]
I can relate it now [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I don't think my ex would agree with the last part though [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I like about this forum: advice for life, as well as poker.

Excuse me while I rush out and retrieve a few hammers. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[StellarWind]

No better hand will fold. Only a few worse hands will call. Check.

Unless he has a two or four you are probably good here. Remember the flop check.
Furthermore two, fours, and small pairs like 55 are not likely value bets for this player. Conclusion: value bets will be pretty uncommon.

On the other hand he may have called the turn with a flush draw or just because he felt like it. That's a big pool of potential bluff hands. Even if he doesn't bluff a big percentage of his opportunities, the total number of bluffs could be fairly large.

Now, do you think you will see four value bets for every bluff? Doubtful. I think you need to call here.

[wonkadaddy]

i check-fold -- unless i think opponent would call turn bet w/ a gutshot/worse. the chance of him picking up the flush draw AND betting the river after he missed is small enuf i can fold to most folks here.