Flop top set in a huge multi-way pot. When do I hit the brakes?

[SeaEagle]

No offense, but this is simply a results oriented hand and it looks like you posted it just to show yourself winning a 33BB pot. An MP3 who hasn't shown himself to be a total maniac is going to play AQo this way roughly once in a million hands.

[DeuceKicker]

I think I just bet/call the turn and call down from there. UTG+1 looks to have 2 pair or a smaller set, but this could also be an aggressively played flush draw.

The obvious issue is MP. He 3bet preflop, cold-called the flop (twice) and comes to life when the A hits. Assuming he 3bets with AA-TT, AK, and AQ, there are more ways for you to be behind than ahead (25 to 32). However, if he only 3bets with AQs, it's now 25-20, and too many players won't even 3bet with AKo.

I think to be ahead here you have to be up against 2pr/set from UTG, AND know that MP 3bets PF, cold-calls flop, then goes crazy with AK/AQ with a flush draw showing on the turn.

I'd bet/call the turn, and check/call river.

[paperboyNC]

[ QUOTE ]
No offense, but this is simply a results oriented hand and it looks like you posted it just to show yourself winning a 33BB pot. An MP3 who hasn't shown himself to be a total maniac is going to play AQo this way roughly once in a million hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually like to post hands like this for the opposite reason. The majority of posts on this board are of hands people lost and thus respondents tend to have the paradigm of thinking "what did he lose to".

If the posts are evenly distributed between winning and losing (which I do), it really makes you think more in depth about the hands posted.

By the way, in the session I post, I only ended up 2BBs. It's very important to always look for opportunities to value bet and value raise the river and possibly double your profit.

[DeuceKicker]

[ QUOTE ]
It's very important to always look for opportunities to value bet and value raise the river and possibly double your profit.

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you think the river is a value bet? Maybe I'm missing something obvious, but to put MP on anything but AA I'd have to assume he was a maniac.

[nepenthe]

If this is your standard line against unknowns you're going to lose a lot of money overall. Hit the breaks preflop. Don't even think of raising the river.

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
By the way, in the session I post, I only ended up 2BBs. It's very important to always look for opportunities to value bet and value raise the river and possibly double your profit.

[/ QUOTE ]
But that's my point. As an instructional hand, this one is awful. You capped preflop and you and another player capped the flop. When a third player wakes up and caps the turn, he's going to have more than TPGK about all the time. If you suggest people should then 3-bet the river, especially with a flush on board, you're giving terrible advice.

I suspect that fact that you were only up 2BB this session has a lot to do with the way you played this hand.