AA - value raise on river

ep510 · #1 09-30-2005, 04:19 AM

Villian is LAG, 55/17/1.7 over 100 hands, with a river AF of 3.

Party Poker 5.00/10.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
5 folds, MP3 raises, 1 folds, Button calls, Hero 3-bets, 1 folds, MP3 calls, Button calls.

Flop: (10.00 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP3 folds, Button calls.

Turn: (6.00 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button calls.

River: (8.00 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button raises, Hero 3-bets

Cumulonimbus · #2 09-30-2005, 04:25 AM

Hah I think I like it.

MyTurn2Raise · #3 09-30-2005, 04:29 AM

I like it. A 1.7 AF is huge for a guy with 55%VPIP. Over 3 on the river...wow! I'm trying to get to that. The only downside I see is him having 76 suited, 65 suited, or TT. My guess is he has 77,88,99,JJ, or QQ.

rmarotti · #4 09-30-2005, 05:54 AM

Meh. 3 betting here is spewing.

ep510 · #5 09-30-2005, 11:34 AM

Why? What range of hands do you put villian on?

#6 09-30-2005, 11:47 AM

He's on 6s or better. Either it was a suited connector, or just a connector he played preflop, maybe a little pair that hit a set on the flop. With a 55% VPIP, he's certainly playing a wide range of hands. I doubt seriously that he's anywhere between 7s and Ts. That leaves JJ, QQ, KK, AA. Since he cold-called the preflop bet, that suggests a baby pair or some sort of suited/connected combinaton.

Here, I probably would have check-called when the 6 rivered. You're definitely right to call a 9:1 bet with his range of hands. Capping on the river, which is probably what's going to happen, does sound a lot like spewing.

Fat Nicky · #7 09-30-2005, 11:52 AM

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Why? What range of hands do you put villian on?

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A range that is wide enough where a lot of his hands include a 6.

ep510 · #8 09-30-2005, 03:16 PM

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Why? What range of hands do you put villian on?

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A range that is wide enough where a lot of his hands include a 6.

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But it is NOT exclusive to those hands that include a 6. I'm talking about those hands which he may raise here that I beat, and that will call a 3-bet.

Given that his AF is 3 on the river, he could be raising with a T or 77-99 being the most likely. He could also do this with a 4 or 2, KK-JJ, and in some cases, maybe even as a bluff-raise with an A hi, K hi, or busted draw.

With all of the above mentioned hands, he will likely call a 3-bet (even with A hi, maybe not K hi tho, and most likely not with a busted draw).

ep510 · #9 09-30-2005, 03:17 PM

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Here, I probably would have check-called when the 6 rivered.

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Now, you're just being results-oriented. There is no reason for me to think that my hand is not good on the river when I'm first to act.

bigalt · #10 09-30-2005, 03:29 PM

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Given that his AF is 3 on the river, he could be raising with a T or 77-99 being the most likely. He could also do this with a 4 or 2, KK-JJ, and in some cases, maybe even as a bluff-raise with an A hi, K hi, or busted draw.

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Do you look up his river AF during the hand? Or does something actually plug that into the hud?

With a high river aggression, what makes you think he'll call with worse hands? Raising and folding is what drives it up, so while there may be a few hands that will call your 3 bet you're definitely not folding to a cap here, so it could be a very expensive play.