3/6 77 river valuebet?

[bottomset]

villian is unknown, just sat down a couple hands ago.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: bottomset is MP with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">bottomset raises</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (7 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">bottomset bets</font>, CO calls, SB calls.

Turn: (5 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">bottomset bets</font>, CO folds, SB calls.

River: (7 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, bottomset ?

is this an easy river bet against an unknown?
how about if the river was the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]?

[spydog]

Easy value bet. Opponent is likely to hold 6x/5x/4x. Yeah, sometimes he has the flush draw, but there's just so many hands that you beat that he will call on the river.

This value bet is even easier if the river card wasn't the 3rd spade.

[GetThere1Time]

All day.

[ QUOTE ]
villian is unknown, just sat down a couple hands ago.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: bottomset is MP with 7, 7.
1 fold, bottomset raises, CO calls, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold.

Flop: (7 SB) 5, 4, 6 (3 players)
SB checks, bottomset bets, CO calls, SB calls.

Turn: (5 BB) J (3 players)
SB checks, bottomset bets, CO folds, SB calls.

River: (7 BB) J (2 players)
SB checks, bottomset ?

is this an easy river bet against an unknown?
how about if the river was the J or J ?

[/ QUOTE ]

The interesting thing about this is that you have 77, which makes it significantly less likely that villain is on a str8 draw.

Let's break it down a little bit. Villain could have a pair or be on a str8 or flush draw. To figure out what villain has a read would be very helpful. Most players at higher limits would've raised with a pair on this board, which suggests that he's on a draw, which means that a river bet would NOT be correct. Since you have no read, though, and since you have 77, which makes it much less likely he's on a straight draw, the likelihood he has a pair and will call you with the worse hand probably makes the river bet +EV.