Turned a set of Aces on a Semi-Scary Board, What Now?

Double Eagle · #1 05-27-2005, 01:04 PM

Here is another hand from the last night's 11r. Villain is Davin Anderson (Dabest24/7), who got a bunch of ESPN air time last year and is a pretty notorious LAG. Curious as to what my line should be on the turn....

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t12000 (8 handed) converter

Button (t237616)
SB (t207490)
BB (t399566)
UTG (t265143)
Hero (t254108)
MP1 (t174036)
MP2 (t193672)
CO (t361281)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises to t36000, 3 folds, Button calls t36000, 2 folds.

Flop: (t96200) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets t60000, Button calls t60000.

Turn: (t216200) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

nsj · #2 05-27-2005, 01:10 PM

?
Put what's left of your stack in the middle.

Double Eagle · #3 05-27-2005, 01:14 PM

Of course I want his chips in the middle. Is pushing the best way to accomplish that?

ZBTHorton · #4 05-27-2005, 01:51 PM

Yes.

TheDrone · #5 05-27-2005, 01:57 PM

Checking is better if you are willing to risk being rivered when he checks through with a draw some of the time. Any club, Q, or T could hurt you. But if he is laggy, there is a good chance he will push the turn with a pair+weak draw, so I would check to make it look like your flop bet was a continuation.

locutus2002 · #6 05-27-2005, 02:08 PM

There is T210,000 in the center, villain has T141,000, hero has him covered.

Hero pushes.

Hero is at least 2:1 favorite at this point. The pot will be offering villain T351:T141 ~ 2.5:1. villain will be calling with almost all of his range most or which are flush draws with a gutshot. The 16 times you are up against QT is more than offset by the 18 times you are up against a lower set or the 28 ways you are up against 2 pr. Villain probably has between 12 and 15 outs. Assuming his TEV will rise substantially if he wins, he might call with the 12 out hands or less even though its slightly -CEV.

I don't think you want a call here, even if it is CEV+ because your TEV will go to zero if you lose the hand.
[img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Double Eagle · #7 05-27-2005, 02:17 PM

FYI, Villain does not need a big draw to call the flop bet and may be planning on a move on the turn.

WinBig · #8 05-27-2005, 02:22 PM

Not sure if my post is going to say much you don't already know but here's my two cents.

You can't check the turn hoping he bets at the pot since there are two possible flush draws so that leaves betting out. A push might get a call here but if he is on a single draw he probably won't call getting just 2.6-1 odds. He might call if he had a flush and straight draw which is possible given the hands a LAG would play defintely include two gap suited connectors.

Betting 1/2 the pot (giving him 3-1 odds) looks strange since that would leave you with about 60000 behind. Seems that would be a bit of a tipoff that you have a huge hand. I guess that leaves pushing and hoping he either has a lower set or gambles to hit a draw.

locutus2002 · #9 05-27-2005, 02:41 PM

If villain has a weaker hand (less than 12 outs), there is no reason to expect him to make a play at the pot. It is also hard to imagine that the Ah helped villain's hand other than give him the 12 outs needed to call the push.

woodguy · #10 05-27-2005, 03:10 PM

If he's really a LAG I want him to come over the top of me because a big part of a LAGs game is FE.

Is he more likely to come over the top of a weak lead or a check?

I'm inclined to bet an amount that says "I don't have a hand, but I want this pot, but I have enough behind to fold if raised", as you are against a thinking players.

In this instance the pot is 216K and you have 158 behind and he has 141, and the BB=1200, so I probably bet 60K again hoping he comes over top.

This bet does give him 4.6-1 to call, but that's ok as if he is drawing to the straight then its not enough, and if he drawing to a flush he actually has 7 outs to draw to so he really needs 6.5-1 but doesn't know it yet.

I may check if he's really aggro and I can count on him to bet.

I don't push here as he only calls if he has a hand, and him calling the flop may be him waiting to put a move on the turn without a hand, or a semibluff.

Hmmmm.....with these stack sizes it may be wisest to check, as if he truly is a LAG he will know that this point will give him the most FE and he may push.

I think pushing is the least attractive of the options here.

Regards,
Woodguy