Beginning Handicapping

stillbr · #1 09-04-2005, 06:15 PM

So I've been reading alot in this forum lately, and have started to do a little sports betting myself. One thing that really interests me is handicapping. Every time I read about someone talking about their system, it is talked about in a top seceret way. I understand why this is. However, where does one even begin to understand what goes into handicapping? I read about someone saying "I came up with this system while I was in college, ect..." Is it from books that explain it in detail? Knowing someone? I just want to be pointed in the right direction as to what goes into handicapping.

#2 09-04-2005, 06:45 PM

Oh man lol tough but great question, stillbr. I started doing it out of necessity. I was a somewhat poor college kid trying to make a little money and had made some decent observations watching the NFL over the course of 15 years which I felt could provide me an edge of sorts. The motivation to do it began entirely on my own.

With the exception of two trends in my system, I have investigated and researched all of them on my own using previous seasons' results (I began researching 1986-1995 with my first system but have purged years along the way due to the way the game has changed, in addition to rule changes like the 2 point conversion for ex.). I've never used a gambling book for help although I will flip through the football handicapping mags if I'm at the store.

There are plenty of trends I began researching which eventually led me down the wrong paths, i.e. ended up being 50-50 ATS indicators. Some began with one set of assumptions while the result turned out to be opposite and counterintuitive. Persistence is key. I can't even count the number of hours I've spent researching and plugging and re-plugging numbers into my spreadsheet to get the right results. It's very time-consuming, although if it wasn't we'd all be making good money off our hunches and fly by night theories.

Since my single area of handicapping strength is the NFL, my advice would be to think about two things, one general and one specific -- 1) NFL games are by far the most popular form of sports betting in the U.S. and involve all sorts of people who would otherwise never bet a game, and 2) the pointspread winner of an NFL game is the outright winner of the game over 80% of the time. This means the spread, while important, is a major factor in fewer than 20% of all games.

This is the best basis I think any beginning NFL handicapper could have for developing a long-run successful system.

#3 09-04-2005, 08:11 PM

I had heard the last statistic about the spread never coming into play is over 90% of the time, not 80%.

I remember reading this a while back in sharp sports betting book. Am I wrong here?

Just curious

Jonny

stillbr · #4 09-04-2005, 09:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I had heard the last statistic about the spread never coming into play is over 90% of the time, not 80%.

I remember reading this a while back in sharp sports betting book. Am I wrong here?

Just curious

Jonny

[/ QUOTE ]

Geeze. If this is true, why doesnt every NFL bettor always bet for the favorite? Is this one way people bet?

Page Jacobson · #5 09-04-2005, 10:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I had heard the last statistic about the spread never coming into play is over 90% of the time, not 80%.

I remember reading this a while back in sharp sports betting book. Am I wrong here?

Just curious

Jonny

[/ QUOTE ]

Geeze. If this is true, why doesnt every NFL bettor always bet for the favorite? Is this one way people bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

They're not saying the favorite wins 90% of the time they're saying 90% of the time either the favorite wins and covers or the underdog wins the game outright. If you can figure who will win the game you'll win your bet 90%.

#6 09-04-2005, 11:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I had heard the last statistic about the spread never coming into play is over 90% of the time, not 80%.

I remember reading this a while back in sharp sports betting book. Am I wrong here?

Just curious

Jonny

[/ QUOTE ]

Last I checked, for the NFL this number is in the low 80s. It may be greater for other sports. Either way, it's a far higher number than the vast majority of bettors believe.

#7 09-05-2005, 12:48 PM

This is true.

The reason you don't always bet the money line is because the 10-20% the line does come into play is an absolutely huge amount in the long run.

Or at least this is what I think, but I still am relatively new to this.

MCS · #8 09-05-2005, 04:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Last I checked, for the NFL this number is in the low 80s. It may be greater for other sports. Either way, it's a far higher number than the vast majority of bettors believe.

[/ QUOTE ]

So one ramification of this is that if you think an NFL underdog has no shot to win a game outright, they're probably not a good bet. Because a large fraction of winning underdog bets come from underdogs winning the game.

#9 09-05-2005, 04:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Last I checked, for the NFL this number is in the low 80s. It may be greater for other sports. Either way, it's a far higher number than the vast majority of bettors believe.

[/ QUOTE ]

So one ramification of this is that if you think an NFL underdog has no shot to win a game outright, they're probably not a good bet. Because a large fraction of winning underdog bets come from underdogs winning the game.

[/ QUOTE ]

I designed it to say try not to think of the pointspread so often when analyzing games (key numbers like 3 aside).