Oh my!! Should I risk my TOURNAMENT LIFE!! so early?!?!?!

[Stipe_fan]

I like your read on the original raiser. It definitely appears he has an overpair, probably AA-QQ. The cold caller in MP1 is on a big draw, most likely a flush draw.

Two of your outs, 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img],8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] are tainted to a flush so I would not consider them outs. Thus you only have six clean outs, if you include the red sixes. This, in my mind, would necessitate a fold. I don't think you need to put all your chips into the pot versus an overpair and a big draw.

If you do decide to push, I believe the apparent overpair would call and of course the big draw would call since he is getting nearly the correct pot odds.

Stipe

[woodguy]

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The cold caller in MP1 is on a big draw, most likely a flush draw.

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That was my initial fear, but doesn't a flush draw raise on the flop?

Regards,
Woodguy

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
I like your read on the original raiser. It definitely appears he has an overpair, probably AA-QQ. The cold caller in MP1 is on a big draw, most likely a flush draw.

Two of your outs, 4 ,8 are tainted to a flush so I would not consider them outs. Thus you only have six clean outs, if you include the red sixes. This, in my mind, would necessitate a fold. I don't think you need to put all your chips into the pot versus an overpair and a big draw.

If you do decide to push, I believe the apparent overpair would call and of course the big draw would call since he is getting nearly the correct pot odds.

Stipe

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That, of course is my biggest concern.

If we put MP1 specifically on the flush draw, my equity drops to 26%, but the pot increases to 296 BB's and I'm paying for 28% of the pot, so even if we put him ONLY on AKs, its still really close.

If we put MP1 on a range that inlcudes more than AKs, I think I have enough equity to still go tarzan on his ass.

Regards,
Woodguy