Tournament Scenario - You Decide

This is a scenario I thought of the other night. The situation really interests me because I think you can make a great case for either folding or pushing here, and some of my friends have even made a case for calling (I don't agree with it, but they did make an arguement for it). I posted this in another forum and got some interesting answers. I am interested to see what my fellow 2+2ers thought of this scenario...

Later stages of a live multi-table NL Hold 'em tournament. Blinds are $1K-$2K and you have $30K in chips.

Everyone(full table, 10 players)folds to the button, a solid player and has been showing down some good cards for the 2 hours you have been playing with him. He is also the chip leader at the table with $100K in chips.

He raises to $10K. Small blind folds and you (in the big blind)look down at 9c9s.

What is your play? [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[UncleSalty]

How close are you to the money? This sounds like a good spot for a SnG, but 99 might be strong enough for a push. I'm not folding this.

Edit: A stop n go will not have any FE because your all-in bet on the flop will be giving villain 2:1. I would push.

Granted, I'm not the caliber of player that some of the sharks are on here, but this is my thinking.

1. He's the big stack, which means he can push you around postflop if you call, so throw that idea out. I think a Stop and Go would be poor here.

2. Your two raads: solid player, shown down strong hands. These actually can work against each other. If he's solid, he knows the value of stealing here with a mediocre hand, so it may not be a strong hand. BUT it very well could be. No help there.

3. I would bet if he's tight, he would at least have two overs to your pair, which is an argument for pushing.

4. Your M of 10 (or so). If you call and miss, you're in more danger now.

If we're in the money, I think I'd push. Not in the money, I fold.

[erc007]

Although your read on the button raiser is probably spot on...the odds are that he is raising here with much less than 99. The size of the raise should indicate that he's not that strong here as well. Why raise to 5x the blind when any raise...ie: T4500-T6000 would easily steal here?
In general, the bigger the raise from the button, the weaker the he is. Unless this guy is REALLY smart...in other words he would make a deliberate overbet from the button, knowing that you would read him as being weak, you have to reraise here. If he then comes back over the top of you...you have a tough decision.

[ QUOTE ]
Although your read on the button raiser is probably spot on...the odds are that he is raising here with much less than 99. The size of the raise should indicate that he's not that strong here as well. Why raise to 5x the blind when any raise...ie: T4500-T6000 would easily steal here?
In general, the bigger the raise from the button, the weaker the he is. Unless this guy is REALLY smart...in other words he would make a deliberate overbet from the button, knowing that you would read him as being weak, you have to reraise here. If he then comes back over the top of you...you have a tough decision.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, a 4x raise is always a stronger than average hand. So a 5xR can only mean A's.

[Kaeser]

[ QUOTE ]
you have to reraise here. If he then comes back over the top of you...you have a tough decision.

[/ QUOTE ]

What's so tough about it? if we raise to 20K and he puts us all-in we're getting 5-1. We call there even if he shows us the aces.

This is one of those spots in a tournament where if you double up here you could put yourself in prime position to win. You could fold here and make the money, but the player who wins the tournament will push and win, whether he is called by the villan or not.

I would push for a few reasons. The first is you give yourself a couple of ways of winning. 1. He folds, & 2. He calls with overcards and loses.

Of course there is always a chance he would call and win, but I think you have a (very large)+EV if you push here.

I also think that (unless your read was an overwhelming one) you should always looking for a chance to double up in a tournament(especially later), and this is a great spot.