2/4 Throwing away money with bottom set.

[erc007]

When he pushes, you are getting 3 to 1 from the pot, so your bottom set only has to be good 25% of the time here to break-even on your call. Could you be 75% sure that you're beat here?

[Jazza]

sort of true, your bottom set has to be good 25% of the time by the river, so if he's got 75% chance of 88 and 25% chance of AK[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] then it's a clear fold

[fimbulwinter]

[ QUOTE ]
Empire 400NL full ring.

I have $394, Villain (19/5/1.2) has me covered. I believe he's a winning player.

I get 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in EMP

Villain limps, I limp, PFR raises to $20. All fold to Villain who calls and I call.

Flop is 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Villain checks, I bet $60, which is around the pot size. PFR folds. Villain makes it $180. I call.

Turn is 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

He pushes.

Uhh yeah. Just donate him the money I guess? Like.. what could he have? He's 1.2 aggression...

[/ QUOTE ]

folding at any point in this hand is not allowed.

fim

[erc007]

[ QUOTE ]
sort of true, your bottom set has to be good 25% of the time by the river, so if he's got 75% chance of 88 and 25% chance of AK[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] then it's a clear fold

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you really saying that you're folding a set (with 10 outs to a boat, including 2 of his flush cards*) to a AK [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] draw? You're ahead, his odds to make his flush are now 6 to 1*.
His bets don't represent a semi-bluff at all IMO, his large flop raise could have been a semi-bluff, but after the call, he wouldn't fire again, therefore I would say that the percentage of time he's holdiing AK [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is negligible.

[elus2]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you really saying that you're folding a set (with 10 outs to a boat, including 2 of his flush cards*) to a AK draw? You're ahead, his odds to make his flush are now 6 to 1*.

[/ QUOTE ]

no he's saying that our opponent's hand range doesn't have a diamond or a combo draw enough of the time to make calling profitable. he's saying that 75% of the time, hero has one out for quads and the other 25% of the time he'll be ahead but will need to dodge the villain's flush outs. this makes it a very -EV call over the long run versus this specific opponent.