2-5 at the Palms

[Dominic]

[ QUOTE ]
Not with the cards on the table - put AA9-AAK on the table and I'd be more apt to be worried about aces full.

My read on trying to trap was way off, but now that I've read the results, it makes a lot more sense they way they played it. It seemed unusual that they'd check around two times.

I think you need to try to assign a hand range to them on the river and then make your decision off of that - (removed reference to results)(I need to work on this also), but I think AK, 44, and 55, could have played it similarly.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think you're exactly right. thanks.

[soah]

I'd call. You lose to AA, A6, A5, A4. It doesn't seem like a TAG would raise a solid EP limper with Axs and if he has quad aces then oh well. And if he's willing to slowplay those hands on the flop, then what's to stop him from slowplaying AK, 55, 44 as well? You're getting a nice price on the end and it's very easy to see one player with trip aces and another with a straight or something.

[Big_Jim]

With the PF action, I think it's pretty tough to put anybody on Aces full.

Button raiser really popping it with A4-A6? Would he do it if they were offsuit? SB really calling that raise with A4-A6? Offsuit? AA - 1 combo.

Looks like about 7 combos of these hands, if they will only play them suited. If they're playing any A... this goes up by quite a bit, but so does the possibliity that they have just trips.

Other possible hands:
44, 55 - 6 combos.
Ax - Non boat. Buttloads of combos
78s 4 combos. (again, more if they'll play it offsuit)
23s ? - It's pretty damn unlikely... lets just ignore it.

So... on the river:
There's 80 + 200 + 900 + 500 = $1680 in the pot, and it costs you another $700 to call.

If you beat the button, there's another $400 to win in the sidepot, regardless of whether you get the main pot.

Based on hand distributions alone, it looks like a pretty easy call....

The tricky part, though, is which of the hands listed above would they play like this?

Any way button raiser checks behind with a non-full A on the flop? 44? Would he continuation bet his 55?

The fact that you describe him as "tricky" makes me think that the chance of him checking behind AK-AJ here would be much higher, but could he really check twice with these hands??

As for the SB, would he really check twice with a hand that beats yours??

After bet and a raise on the river, button has to have balls of iron to make a bluff here... so that doesn't seem too likely. Any chance he would think his craptasticly played AK would be good enough to push with here?

The only logical hands I can put them on are SB-78s and Button - AA.

If these guys have been making some wacky plays, or slowplaying a lot, that probably pushes it to a call... but since you say these guys are LAG, I think it's a fold.

Edit: Man those pot odds sure are juicy though.....

[blendedsuit]

Dom, how on earth did you fold this??? sorry about that, but i would have instacalled there.

[Dominic]

I folded, fearing Aces full.

Both the Button and SB showed 78 for a chopped pot.

In retrospect, I don't think I thought-out the river clearly. Yes, the Button was more than capable of raising A5s pre-flop here, but I think the chances of him having exactly A5 or A4 should not have forced a fold on my part.

Anyway, live and learn. Thanks for the replies!

[Dominic]

[ QUOTE ]
With the PF action, I think it's pretty tough to put anybody on Aces full.

Button raiser really popping it with A4-A6? Would he do it if they were offsuit? SB really calling that raise with A4-A6? Offsuit? AA - 1 combo.

Looks like about 7 combos of these hands, if they will only play them suited. If they're playing any A... this goes up by quite a bit, but so does the possibliity that they have just trips.

Other possible hands:
44, 55 - 6 combos.
Ax - Non boat. Buttloads of combos
78s 4 combos. (again, more if they'll play it offsuit)
23s ? - It's pretty damn unlikely... lets just ignore it.

So... on the river:
There's 80 + 200 + 900 + 500 = $1680 in the pot, and it costs you another $700 to call.

If you beat the button, there's another $400 to win in the sidepot, regardless of whether you get the main pot.

Based on hand distributions alone, it looks like a pretty easy call....

The tricky part, though, is which of the hands listed above would they play like this?

Any way button raiser checks behind with a non-full A on the flop? 44? Would he continuation bet his 55?

The fact that you describe him as "tricky" makes me think that the chance of him checking behind AK-AJ here would be much higher, but could he really check twice with these hands??

As for the SB, would he really check twice with a hand that beats yours??

After bet and a raise on the river, button has to have balls of iron to make a bluff here... so that doesn't seem too likely. Any chance he would think his craptasticly played AK would be good enough to push with here?

The only logical hands I can put them on are SB-78s and Button - AA.

If these guys have been making some wacky plays, or slowplaying a lot, that probably pushes it to a call... but since you say these guys are LAG, I think it's a fold.

Edit: Man those pot odds sure are juicy though.....

[/ QUOTE ]

great work! thanks for the detailed analysis. I have to get in the habit of breaking down the possibilities like this in the middle of a hand. When a pot gets big like this and raises and pushes are going crazy, I tend to call/fold/raise based on emotion and not what the hand is telling me.

[AZK]

i would have shoved on the river when SB bet out and action was on me.

[Big_Jim]

$900 into a $130 pot? Yikes.

[Big_Jim]

Haha.. both of them having 78 was the one thing I didn't think about....

[flawless_victory]

dude, that is one bad laydown.
basically, never ever fold a full house in that game unless there are trips on the board and u have 33 or something.