Fire last round on river bluff?

[Megenoita]

On river I can see several higher card hands that I fold...what do you think?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (4 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls.

Turn: (4 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls.

River: (6 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB folds.

Final Pot: 7 BB

[New001]

Curious, why raise the flop on this board if you aren't taking a free card? Seems to me you'll make more when you hit and you don't have too much fold equity on this board to make up for it.

[Willluck]

[ QUOTE ]
Curious, why raise the flop on this board if you aren't taking a free card? Seems to me you'll make more when you hit and you don't have too much fold equity on this board to make up for it.

[/ QUOTE ]

[MicroBob]

you don't think there's a chance he could just have a 9 and decide on the turn that he is probably beat?


(this is a semi-serious question: I am definitely over-aggressive with my continuation bets in heads-up battles where I'm mostly making up fold-equity that isn't really there)

[Megenoita]

[ QUOTE ]
Curious, why raise the flop on this board if you aren't taking a free card? Seems to me you'll make more when you hit and you don't have too much fold equity on this board to make up for it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course I'll make more when I hit. But I like getting a feel for where I'm at on the flop. I think the way this opponent played the pot rules out a J, and TP isn't very likely. When he didn't raise the turn, I ruled out TP and thought he had an ace, so I fired one more shot. Not sure if this is +EV on average though.

[New001]

It's definitely possible, but he PFRed and the board is KJ9. A ton more hands hit the K or J than hit the 9, and he does a lot to ruin his implied odds later on if he hits.

[Megenoita]

Microbob,

Did you get my PM the other day?

Yeah he could have a 9 or a smaller pp. But for 1 bet on the river I could push out A high, so iw ould think it's good, and A high is more likely than a 9.

[Megenoita]

[ QUOTE ]
It's definitely possible, but he PFRed and the board is KJ9. A ton more hands hit the K or J than hit the 9, and he does a lot to ruin his implied odds later on if he hits.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not worried about implied odds in a HU pot [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. I'm worried about maximizing equity, meaning I want to win a higher % of the time before the river since 10 high is no good. My hand is also deceitful so if I make it, I still get paid if he has a piece.

M

[MicroBob]

"Did you get my PM the other day?"


Nope (just double-checked)

[Megenoita]

Okay, just checking...I may have typoed.