99 on the Bubble

bluewilde · #1 08-06-2005, 09:55 PM

BB with 1300. 4-handed. 100/200

UTG (1500) folds
Button (2500) calls
SB (400) folds
Me (1300) Push

Now in a Party Game, this is baaaad isn't it? SB is too low to play romantic hero against LAGgy big stack when top 3 are paid, right? In any case this is a Noble short-handed game, and only top 2 get paid, so I feel like this is a must move spot. However, Button's limp says Broadway/weak ace, and he's the kinda guy that calls all-ins with these hands (he has the lead after adeptly calling all-in from AA with QJ). Do I still push being fairly confident that he will call and I will be a 13-12 favoite (I'm pretty sure those are the preflop odds for underpair vs. two overs). In this case, the blinds have me convinced this is a must push, but what if they were 50/100?

The Don · #2 08-06-2005, 09:58 PM

In response to your post, as a poster on this forum I would like to advise you of the following:

[ ] Read the FAQ
[ ] Use the Search Function
[ ] It's Just Variance
[ ] Your Sample Size is Too Small
[X] This is a Bad Beat Post!
[X] You Might Suck
[X] Party is Rigged
[X] Pwn3d!
[X] Push
[X] It's not even close
[ ] Fold Preflop

Seriously... I would push this with 6.5 BB... 99 is looking pretty damn good 4 handed. There are too many times where I have folded this and the shorty got lucky leaving me extremely short stacked because of my weaktight play.

EDIT: Two spots paid... this isn't even close.

bluewilde · #3 08-06-2005, 10:03 PM

lol, not a bad beat post. Villain had QT and I flopped 99. This is extreme, but it reminded me of Freudian's hypothetical. I'm wary of taking these coinflips and was surprised when people insisted it was "vary bad" to let this one go. It just got me thinking about what if I weren't under pressure. Not early game, just, I have more chips, blinds are proportionally lower etc. Is it wrong to be non-confrontational with 9s? Ts? 8s? 7s? Having a hard time getting a grip on most of em.

chisness · #4 08-06-2005, 10:20 PM

i'd check and push on a favorable flop, check/fold other flops

bluewilde · #5 08-06-2005, 10:23 PM

What about monster flops (as was the case, had I not pushed preflop). Is pushing those going to look convincingly enough as a bluff to get called? I think it's more suspicious to check...ionno.

Isura · #6 08-06-2005, 10:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i'd check and push on a favorable flop, check/fold other flops

[/ QUOTE ]

Pusing is much better in a top 2 pay format.