looking for big hidden holes

wdbaker · #1 05-24-2005, 05:49 PM

[image]http://tinyurl.com/dph5s[/image]
Party table
my pot odds were 5.5/1(15.38%)

This is where I'm lost, I'm showing that I have a
73.01% chance of winning this hand

Can one of you genius's tell me how that is possible or not.

I am currently on a regimen of narcotics, legally, from the doc and so my thinking is rather foggy and slow so am trying out some odds calcs to see if that will help me plug any holes and get me back to where I don't need them.

It could be that the one I am using is not right, I don't know.

I can do all the basic pot odd scenarios, just don't have enough time to figure when they are more complex.

enough excuses

P.S. I tried to get the Pic to just be there instead of having to go to it, anyone no what i'm doing wrong, linked from the public section of the yahoo briefcase thingy [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

One Street at a Time
wdbaker Denver, Co

wdbaker · #2 05-24-2005, 06:06 PM

Here is the HH to go with it
I normally would have probably called his bet and then check folded on the river. At this level they usually have it if they are raising and I had only a middling pair but the odds thing told me to go ahead ???

Thanks for looking at this for me, hopefully will learn something new...

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (7 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
4 folds, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (3 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, Button calls, SB folds.

Turn: (2.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button raises, Hero calls.

River: (6.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 8.50 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has Qd Ks (two pair, aces and kings).
Button has 4h 3h (one pair, aces).
Outcome: Hero wins 8.50 BB.

mostsmooth · #3 05-24-2005, 07:58 PM

those seem to be some kick ass drugs youre taking

wdbaker · #4 05-24-2005, 08:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
those seem to be some kick ass drugs youre taking

[/ QUOTE ]

mostsmooth,
That is probably an understatement, Rush Limbaugh's got nothing on me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

You know they're good when you've played 4 tables for an hour, but you need to check PT to make sure it wasn't a dream [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Or you sit down at night excited to play, get 4 tables up an running and then suddenly its morning...

One Street at a Time
wdbaker Denver, Co

wdbaker · #5 05-25-2005, 02:38 PM

anyone out there,
KK against AA on the board, 2people left on the turn anyone see me as being 73% to win and how?

refer to the first two posts above for specifics...

Thanks ahead of time

One Street at a Time
wdbaker Denver, Co

LetYouDown · #6 05-25-2005, 02:51 PM

Huh? And I mean that.

wdbaker · #7 05-25-2005, 02:52 PM

OK,
I took a look at pokerstove for the first time and here's what I got which I found interesting, that is if I didn't mess it up.
Code:<hr /><pre>
4,620 games 0.010 secs 462,000 games/sec

Board: Ad 2h Kd As
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 34.4156 % [ 00.30 00.04 ] { AA-TT, AKs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }
Hand 2: 65.5844 % [ 00.62 00.04 ] { KsQd }
</pre><hr />

Code:<hr /><pre>45,540 games 0.091 secs 500,439 games/sec

Board: Ad 2h Kd As
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 12.0663 % [ 00.11 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 2: 87.9337 % [ 00.87 00.01 ] { KsQd }
</pre><hr />

Surprise, surpise??? based on this, with plyr2 having a random hand I'm 87.9337% to win

and if I give him the run of broadway cards, still 65.5844% to win.

Honestly I would have never guessed and figured I was doomed.

So does this testing mean that just because a higher pair is on the board that we shouldn't bail out, I must admit i feel a bit stupid over this one...

Anyone shed some light

One Steet at a Time
wdbaker Denver, Co

wdbaker · #8 05-25-2005, 02:58 PM

did that make more sense I hope

One Street at a Time
wdbaker Denver, Co

LetYouDown · #9 05-25-2005, 03:04 PM

That's where reads and action come in. Yes, you might be a favorite over random broadway cards...but at a lot of lower limits, people play any A. You're very likely to be up against A-X. One problem is, you could very well be drawing dead. The other problem is, you're probably only getting action from hands that have you crushed or complete donks who like to bluff boards like that.

wdbaker · #10 05-25-2005, 03:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
That's where reads and action come in. Yes, you might be a favorite over random broadway cards...but at a lot of lower limits, people play any A. You're very likely to be up against A-X. One problem is, you could very well be drawing dead. The other problem is, you're probably only getting action from hands that have you crushed or complete donks who like to bluff boards like that.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
That's where reads and action come in. Yes, you might be a favorite over random broadway cards...but at a lot of lower limits, people play any A. You're very likely to be up against A-X. One problem is, you could very well be drawing dead. The other problem is, you're probably only getting action from hands that have you crushed or complete donks who like to bluff boards like that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, as stated earlier [ QUOTE ]
I normally would have probably called his bet and then check folded on the river. At this level they usually have it if they are raising and I had only a middling pair but the odds thing told me to go ahead ???

[/ QUOTE ]

so I think we are on the same page, my question is are we missing something more important than we thought, and based on what the odds were over time if I played this out i would be ahead so should I forget the reads and go with the math or use what I've learned from experience and miss the big hand which by the way could be considered catastrauphic(did I spell that right?) over time.

Sooo confused

I wish it were all black and white, I wish that gray was defined by grey/black or grey/white, I wish that i could find my way back through the looking glass...

One Street at a Time
wdbaker Denver, Co