Party .5/1: JTs in MP1 - Page 2

tomcain · #11 03-28-2005, 08:10 AM

I agree with folding and unless I am reading it wrong, he is getting only 6.5:1. That is not enough.

tom

einbert · #12 03-28-2005, 08:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with folding and unless I am reading it wrong, he is getting only 6.5:1. That is not enough.

tom

[/ QUOTE ]

The flop call is fine.

He has 1.5 outs for his BDFD and 1.5 outs for his BDSD.
I'd say about 4 outs for his overcards, for a total of 7 outs.

By my estimate he only needs 5.7-1 for this call to be break even, so there is almost a full SB of overlay there. I think it would be a bad fold.

And this is estimating that someone has a four or has you reverse dominated more than a third of the time, which I think is fair.

EDIT: But he's getting 8.5-1 because of the bettor's bet and someone that has already called. Accounting for other overcallers and possible raises behind us, I guess the effective odds on this round are something like 7.5-1 or so. Still so much overlay that folding is a fairly large mistake.

LipBalmGuy · #13 03-28-2005, 10:24 AM

This will near certainly get more expensive than just this flop call. The original poster said MP3 and CO are aggressive. A check-raise on the flop or raises on the turn will kill your pot odds.

Plus, a made flush or made straight is not a guaranteed win. The flush could even loose to a better flush like 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

I still think you're being too generous with outs and that this is a clear fold on the flop.

afk · #14 03-28-2005, 11:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Super-fishy-played. The pot is low, you should not call on the flop with this backdoor flush/straight draw and two lousy overcards. The river-raise is an suiside-mission, which can cost an additional bet, if he reraises a better hand. You will win it after your opponent's reraise only if he is a blithering idiot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Ivanopolis, I think it's close on the flop. Personally I'd probably fold it more times than not, but I don't think that peeling every so often is terrible. Also, I thought you might be 2+2 - your play is pretty solid.