flopping the nuts HU: slowplay or not?

jonnyUCB · #1 03-07-2005, 04:04 PM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) converter

UTG ($83)
UTG+1 ($156.60)
MP1 ($114.15)
MP2 ($150)
MP3 ($292.55)
CO ($234.25)
Hero ($232.85)
SB ($181.70)
BB ($242.90)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 raises to $6, 3 folds, Hero calls $6, 2 folds.

Flop: ($15) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $10, MP1 raises to $20, Hero raises to $150, MP1 folds.

Final Pot: $185

Results in white below: 
No showdown. Hero wins $185. 

Any thoughts here? Dealing with shortstacks, my strategy is normally to make them commit most of their chips then push.

Do I wait till the turn to extract more money? I wasn't sure what his bet indicated... had no reads on the individual. I'm not sure what hand villian could have that I could have extracted more money from by just calling his reraise on the flop except overcards.. and I'm not sure he'd even follow through with the bluff on the turn (esp if a club, 5, 9, or T falls).

VS set pushing is the right move. Vs overpair.. maybe the right move? As mentioned, lots of turn cards kill my action but the villian might be overcommitted even when a scary card falls. Did I possibly force an overpair to fold?

What is missing from my analysis? How would you play it?

All comments appreciated

tbach24 · #2 03-07-2005, 04:12 PM

I think that making it 60 to go would be fine. You might get him to continue to overplay an overpair.

schwza · #3 03-07-2005, 04:16 PM

i like a flat call there. villain is short enough that if he bets the turn, he'll have a lot of his stack in the middle, and you might get a crying call if you push the turn. TT+ is probably going to wind up all-in unless an A hits if you let him bet the turn, and not 3-betting gives AK a chance to pick up a pair (or continue bluffing).

djoyce003 · #4 03-07-2005, 04:16 PM

Your bet is way too big. You want to raise the size of the pot...something he might call. You are extracting no value here. Raise, he'll hopefully call, then you make another big bet on the turn. You are only realistically scared of a flush draw. Any single pair or overpair is drawing to a runner runner full house. You don't want to run them off just yet unless you really think they will call here. Not even the worst party fish is calling that overbet unless then have a set, and even then they might fold a set that isn't 10s. He probably has a 10 here, and you ran him off drawing almost completely dead.

jonnyUCB · #5 03-07-2005, 04:19 PM

I think I underestimated his short-stack-ed-ness. I thought he started with 80 at the beginning of the hand. Even though he has a decent stack, wouldn't asking him to put 60 in on the flop be basically pushing? That's why i resorted to it, but I guess i should reserve that for times I want to put pressure on them.. I wouldn't think any half-way decent player would commit half their stack on the flop without being ready to go the whole distance.

However, I'm amazed how often people call big bets OOP and fold on later streets, as if they think their opponent will just check behind after they check.

Anyway, i digress, do you think overpair lays down to my play and stays around for your suggestion?

jonnyUCB · #6 03-07-2005, 04:23 PM

Not sure a reraise is of any value here honestly except allin. Is the play meant to show more weakness enticing them to call? no.. the flatcall does. Reraising here is basically committing him to the pot so why not get it over with before the scary turn cards?

Am i missing something in my analysis? cause there was no part of me that was thinking about putting in a baby reraise after he did that.

schwza · #7 03-07-2005, 04:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Your bet is way too big. You want to raise the size of the pot...something he might call. You are extracting no value here. Raise, he'll hopefully call, then you make another big bet on the turn. You are only realistically scared of a flush draw. Any single pair or overpair is drawing to a runner runner full house. You don't want to run them off just yet unless you really think they will call here. Not even the worst party fish is calling that overbet unless then have a set, and even then they might fold a set that isn't 10s. He probably has a 10 here, and you ran him off drawing almost completely dead.

[/ QUOTE ]

raising the pot would be to make it 75 (a call brings the pot to 20+20+15 = 55, so raising the pot would be 20+55 = 75). villain started the hand with 110.

schwza · #8 03-07-2005, 04:58 PM

i agree that if you reraise, it should be a push. if you had overs + flush draw with something like AQs, you would not be screwing around with a small reraise. pushing lets him talk himself into a call with JJ or something (if he's decent. if he's horrible, then milking him along can work).

AncientPC · #9 03-07-2005, 05:22 PM

I would smoothcall and reraise the turn. Given the aggression, it's highly possible that villain will bet out again on the turn.

If not then you can value bet and make it look like a steal at his weak check.

tbach24 · #10 03-07-2005, 05:26 PM

It depends on the player. Some will die with overpairs, other's will find every reason to fold them. I saw a guy call 8/9 of his stack PF and then fold on the flop once. It was funny. Maybe 50 straight would be better because that's like half of his stack. It also gives him the oppurtunity to push his [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]'s.