AJo in the CO

[djhoneybear]

Am I the only one who wants to get out of this hand? BB might cap with trash but we should respect the raise of Button. We are behind and didn't hit the flop at all. If we can isolate BB with a raise then I continue with the hand - else I fold an unimproved turn. We most likely only have 3 outs to beat the button and we don't know whether they are Js or As.

[silkyslim]

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Am I the only one who wants to get out of this hand? BB might cap with trash but we should respect the raise of Button. We are behind and didn't hit the flop at all. If we can isolate BB with a raise then I continue with the hand - else I fold an unimproved turn. We most likely only have 3 outs to beat the button and we don't know whether they are Js or As.

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the button would cap with anything, he doesnt care about card quality or whether he has a pair. he bets because he can. his cards are truly random. the tight guy is capable of folding better hands, and when this happens it is quite a coup. we have a good chance of winning unimproved against the maniac and a good chance of folding out the rock, so lets invest a BB and win a bunch more.

[hobbsmann]

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Raise the flop. If button calls, you are done with the hand on the turn. If button gets out of the way, be prepared to take the hand to showdown.

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[MrEngenic]

Grunching
Raise the turn and fold to a 3bet. This is a good opportunity to play the players and make BB fold a better hand. You might be ahead of BB. I bet many posters will tell you to fold but I will stand by my position on this one.

Now I've read other replies and have some comments. I like to just call this flop. If it's raised behind me I can get out cheap UI on the turn and if it's raised and 3bet I can get out on the flop. If button just calls I raise on the turn. If he stays in the pot or if the pot is 3bet I don't call any more bets UI. If BB calls and donks the river HU I call. I believe this is a better line than raising the flop.
I looked up a similar hand in "how good is your limit hold'em" and seeing all the similarities I now suspect OP got the hand from there. Did you?

I think a fold preflop is actually good here. If button's pfr standards are as high as we're led to believe, there's a huge risk of domination. Having to call one bet back against this player is uncomfortable; two? Impossible.

As played, I think a raise on either the flop or the turn is best. I would prefer raising the flop here in most cases, especially because you note button to be weaktight. You have done nothing to indicate that you don't have a monster, as you could only call the preflop cap. Although a raise gives her a chance to call profitably with AK, she may just decide to concede the pot. If the chances of folding her on the flop and turn are equal, I'd much rather do it on the flop; it's cheaper, and she doesn't get to see the turn card.

PS. Is everybody c/fing an A on the turn?

[bobhalford]

I like the turn raise idea here, but am I the only one that's worried that BB might have a better hand than ours? For this play to work, we have to not only have button holding AK, but for him to fold it. In addition, BB has to have some weird hand like KJ/KQ/QJ/J9/A9 for us to be able to win UI if a brick falls on the river. If button has TT+ he is probably 3-betting the turn, at which point we may have 3 A outs at best for a 15-1 shot. We can call or fold then.

If we don't raise the turn, then obviously we fold it. Personally, I would have folded PF. The way the hand played, I would have folded the turn. There's a good chance that button himself is waiting for the turn to raise, in addition to the fact that we may be badly beaten by crazy BB.

I think this play depends also on how button perceives our play. If he sees us as a real TAG, he may lay down his AK a good percentage of the time. The turn raise is a great play, but I would only do it if I had a decent made hand like middle pair that I felt was ahead of BB, and raising would force button to fold a better hand. Here we have nothing but A high, so we would have to win unimproved.

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am I the only one that's worried that BB might have a better hand than ours?

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The BB is a superloose and aggressive player, so her hand range is basically random. You might be able to remove some non-connecting offsuit cards below 9 from her range. This type of player is probably capping most offsuit connectors, any suited cards, any pair, any big cards, and any ace.

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If we don't raise the turn, then obviously we fold it. Personally, I would have folded PF. The way the hand played, I would have folded the turn. There's a good chance that button himself is waiting for the turn to raise, in addition to the fact that we may be badly beaten by crazy BB.

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If you aren't raising this anywhere, then fold the flop (I also agree with the pf fold, btw). The point of this play is specifically to push button off a bigger A. We basically know that we're behind against the button's 3-betting range. Given that we called the flop, and button only called the flop, a turn raise is practically mandatory here. If the button was waiting until the turn to raise with overcards, then she will surely fold at this point (the T also acts as a bit of a scare card, especially if OP's stealing range is big). If the button was waiting to raise with an overpair, then we were in trouble anyway, and she'll either 3-bet or CC the turn, and you won't be putting any more bets into the pot.

Remeber the reads: BB is maniac and button is weaktight. Raising is the right play here. The question is whether it's better on the flop or turn.

[shark6]

A raise appears to be +EV.

If-

Combos for button:

AA: 3 ways
KK: 6 ways
QQ: 6 ways
JJ?: 3 ways
AK: 12 ways

If this is his real 3-betting range, then he has AK 40% of the time on the flop.

Button knows this is a big pot and that BB is an idiot, so I don't think he folds to 2 cold on the flop very often with AK. But, I'll be optimistic and say he'd fold AK 50% of the time here. Also, lets assume when we fold the Button we have the 60% equity that silkyslim figured.

The EV of a raising is (I’m not sure this calc is correct):

Times button folds AK and we win:
(13.5SB)*(.4 Button has AK)*(.5 Button folds AK)*(.6 equity win %) = 1.6 SB

Times button folds AK and we lose:
(-2SB)*(.4 Button has AK)*(.5 Button folds AK)*(.4 equity lose %) = -0.2 SB

Times button does not fold AK and we win (assume we need a J to win):
(13.5SB)*(.4 Button has AK)*(.5 Button doesn’t fold AK)*(.12 hit the J) = .3 SB

Times button does not fold AK and we lose (assume we need a J and win):
(-2SB)*(.4 Button has AK)*(.5 Button doesn’t fold AK)*(.88 do not hit the J) = -0.4 SB

Times button has JJ-KK and we win (need A to win):
(13.5SB)*(.5 Button has JJ-KK)*(.12 hit the A) = 0.8 SB

Times button has JJ-KK and we lose (need A to win):
(-2SB)*(.5 Button has JJ-KK)*(.88 do not hit the A) = -0.7 SB

Times button has AA and we win (need runner J’s to win):
(13.5SB)*(.1 Button has AA)*(.001 hit runner J’s) = 0.0 SB

Times button has AA and we lose (need runner J’s to win):
(-2SB)*(.1 Button has AA)*(.999 do not hit runner J’s) = -0.2 SB

TOTAL = 1.6 - 0.2 + 0.3 - 0.4 + 0.0 - 0.2 = +1.1 SB (raise is quite +EV)

Note: When button has JJ+ and we draw out, I’m assuming we always beat the BB. This of course isn’t true, but the scenarios where we beat the Button with JJ+ and lose to the BB are rare and don’t affect the EV calc much, I think.

Analysis:

1. According to my calcs, if he folds AK 15% of the time, the raise would be EV neutral, any more than that and we’re in the money.

2. This calculation is heavily dependant on button having and folding AK. He would need to 3-bet PF with AK every time for the above to be correct. If he only 3-bets AK PF 50% of the time, then he only has AK 25% of the time on the flop. (Weak-tights surely don’t always 3-bet PF with AK). If he only has AK 25% of the time, then the play is neutral EV if he folds it more than 20% of the time on the flop. Still quite good I think.

3. Even if button doesn’t fold AK, we’re not in that bad of shape EV-wise with a raise. If this gives us fold equity against button and BB on the turn, then the flop raise alone may be +EV.

4. Ed Miller is right. It really does pay to play aggressively in large pots.

5. I could run this in yet another senario where we just call the flop and let Button stay in with AK, but it wouldn't be as good as raise to try to fold him out.

I don't think you accounted for scenarios where we are 3-bet on the flop by button's pairs.

Anyway, can you run some calcs to compare this to raising on the turn, where button is more likely to fold AK?