TT prays for a good turn card and gets...

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
"why continue to bloat the pot?"

Because you have the best hand most of the time. Therefore, when you win the pot you collect an extra 1.5 BB. In addition, your line makes it more likely you will be bluff raised on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I may have the best hand at the time, but it doesn't mean I'll have the best hand by the showdown. I figure my hand will hold up at showdown maybe 50-60% of the time (villains probably have 10-14 combined outs against me). This represents a very modest equity edge. But this isn't an equity edge like a flush draw's equity edge. I'm in a situation of reverse implied odds. I'd love to be all in, turn the cards up, and hope for the best. But that's not what's going on. I've got to fight off two more rounds of betting, and there is a somewhat reasonable chance I'm going to be bet out of this pot and forfeit that tiny gain PLUS the SB I invested to try to gain it.

Furthermore, the likelihood of me being bluff raised on the turn at a passive table 1/2 is not going to change much if I 3-bet the flop.

[imported_leader]

[ QUOTE ]
This represents a very modest equity edge.

[/ QUOTE ]

No it isn't. You're putting one bet in the pot while others are putting 3 in. Yeah, you could be out drawn. But you ignoring when you win. Because you have an equity edge, you win more for every bet that goes into the pot.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This represents a very modest equity edge.

[/ QUOTE ]

No it isn't. You're putting one bet in the pot while others are putting 3 in. Yeah, you could be out drawn. But you ignoring when you win. Because you have an equity edge, you win more for every bet that goes into the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

The equity edge is very modest. If there are 4 extra SBs put in the pot by my re-raise (I must include my own bet), then my "share" is about 2 SB assuming I go to showdown (1 SB profit). If there is no more betting and we go to showdown, I stand to win 1 SB extra as a result of my 3-bet.

But there are future rounds of betting. I expect to fold on the turn about 1/3 of the time and I might need to fold the river another 15% of the time (it's very hard for me to pay off a river donk, especially if there are overcards, or if the board pairs, or if there's a 4-straight). This means that 48% of the time, I forfeit my 1 SB investment AND my 1 SB profit.

EV of 3-betting and going to showdown: +1 SB * 52%
EV of 3-betting and not going to showdown: -1 SB * 48%

EV = .04 SB

This is a very modest gain.

[damaniac]

I don't think 50/60% is a modest edge but at the same time I don't think your edge is that great. Thinking back to Ed's SSHE example, he gave the tens 25% in a 5 way pot, while the aces were probably 50% or so. In this case, a 3, 7, 8, and A are all bad cards, and a K, Q, J, or 2 can be bad as well (to say nothing of the board cards pairing). That probably works out to half the deck or so weighted which sticks us at 25% right?

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think 50/60% is a modest edge but at the same time I don't think your edge is that great. Thinking back to Ed's SSHE example, he gave the tens 25% in a 5 way pot, while the aces were probably 50% or so. In this case, a 3, 7, 8, and A are all bad cards, and a K, Q, J, or 2 can be bad as well (to say nothing of the board cards pairing). That probably works out to half the deck or so weighted which sticks us at 25% right?

[/ QUOTE ]

That example is substantially different. There were 4 limpers plus the big blind (and hero). In this hand, we've got a raiser and two players who called a re-raise preflop. The flop in Ed Miller's hand has a flush draw, this one does not. The flop action in SSH was bet-raise-two coldcalls and then it's hero's turn to act. There are only two postflop aggressors in this hand, and I'm one of them. Because of these things, I expect my hand to be best more often and hold up more often.

You also can't weight equity in that way. It simply does not work (because equity calculations already include the flops that contain an ace, king, etc).

if you think the Btn will raise bet, to try and induce the drawers to make mistakes. But if they will come anyway check call down.

[krishanleong]

Posting blind.

I'm 3-betting that flop and firing the turn.

Krishan