200NL...I keep swearing I'll stop this...2 barrel bluff (or 3)

[Leptyne]

The biggest problem I have with this play is a tite player UTG. Many players will limp here with strong cards for various reasons. With a cold caller in the pot villain should have more than a limping hand to call an EP bring-in, a cold call, and being UTG. Surely AA and KK would have been heard from but QQ down to 22 could call. Your lead clearly represents either a 9 or a PP that can beat 99.

When you decide to fire the 2nd barrell I think the K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] gave your cold bluff, semi-bluff or strong hand some legs. I fire again at the river. I don't see any way the K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] can hurt, it can only strengthen the possibilities that villain was beat all along or you got lucky and he's beat now by a back door flush, AK, etc.

I don't see anything wrong with the play, just the timing. You should be attempting this against weak-tite players that have clearly demonstrated they will wilt as the pressure increases. Being a calling station in this situation is a sign of weakness, unless he's got the nuts, or thinks you're over-aggro enough to keep betting into a better hand, but you need better info than this before you fire that 2nd barrell.

[rwanger]

[ QUOTE ]
TT and even JJ probably give up (or give up more often than 1 time in 3, anyway)

[/ QUOTE ]

If you have TT or JJ and fold this more than 75% of the time, then, no offense, but I want you in my game. You check called the villian into putting his stack in while you had an overpair...and then folded getting 3:1 when ONE overcard came?

Not trying to be snooty, but that is the utter definition of weak tight.

[soah]

If your read is that your opponent will not fire the third barrel, then it would be correct.

[VarlosZ]

[ QUOTE ]
If you have TT or JJ and fold this more than 75% of the time, then, no offense, but I want you in my game. You check called the villian into putting his stack in while you had an overpair...and then folded getting 3:1 when ONE overcard came?

Not trying to be snooty, but that is the utter definition of weak tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

It sounds like your problem with check-folding the river isn't with folding, but with getting into that spot in the first place. Agreed that Villain's play to this point is poor if he intends to check-fold the river, but, in a vacuum, folding to a push is correct. TT-JJ will not be ahead often enough to make calling profitable, and I don't think it's close. Again, AQ is virtually the only plausible holding that TT-JJ beats.

[ QUOTE ]
...and then folded getting 3:1 when ONE overcard came?

[/ QUOTE ]

This understates the importance of that K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. It's not just one overcard. It pairs AK and completes the flush, thus demolishing the range of plausible hands that TT-JJ beats.

[rwanger]

I promise you, if you are folding TT here as villian, you are costing yourself a TON of money. I call getting 3:1 on my money every time here, even if the river is the Ace of hearts. Why? Because if I put myself in this position, I thought TT was good and I could get my opponent to get all his money in with no hand.

I'm not saying the villians line is always correct, although in this particular case it was, and if he folds here, you put a little note: "will call down with what he thinks is the best hand, then fold to half-pot bet when a random over card falls".

The rub is that you guys seem to fear AK for some reason, so the backdoor flush K scares the hell out of you and you fold. So I assume you call then when it comes Q of hearts?

[BlackRain]

At the 200 NL game that I know I think your line is chip spewing most of the time. Continuation betting into 2 other people isn't the best play IMO when you completely whiff on the flop. If you do cont. bet, I like a stronger bet on the flop. 25 bucks makes TT and smaller PP's think about calling a lot more from my experience. If you are going to fire a second barrel on the turn I don't think it has to be so heavy. 30 bucks makes a mediocre hand go away too and doesn't get you so heavily invested. I also think it makes more sense to fire a 2nd barrel with AK, rather than AQ, as you can now back into a winner against QQ as well. I think the river pretty much plays itself, you have to bet that scare card. It would be nice to have a bit more behind here to take away his odds (don't bet the turn so hard). But there is no stopping now. Bet and pray.

[VarlosZ]

[ QUOTE ]
I promise you, if you are folding TT here as villian, you are costing yourself a TON of money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Forget for a minute that folding makes your play on the flop and turn look absurd in retrospect. Hero raised the pot in EP preflop. Then bet big on the flop and turn, and pushed the river. All you beat at the river is AQ-AJ, or a pocket pair 88 or lower -- i.e. a pure bluff. He's unlikely to have raised preflop to begin with with those hands, let alone fire three barrels post-flop with a hand that clearly isn't good and an opponent who likes his cards.

Do you honestly believe that Hero, with this line, has one of those hands more than 25% of the time in this game? If so, I think you're way off, and we'll just have to agree to disagree.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not saying the villians line is always correct, although in this particular case it was, and if he folds here, you put a little note: "will call down with what he thinks is the best hand, then fold to half-pot bet when a random over card falls".

[/ QUOTE ]

Heh, you keep denigrating that K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. The J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is a "random overcard," unlikely to have hit your opponent whether he was bluffing or not. The K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] cripples the chances that Hero is bluffing with the worst hand.

[ QUOTE ]
The rub is that you guys seem to fear AK for some reason, so the backdoor flush K scares the hell out of you and you fold. So I assume you call then when it comes Q of hearts?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think I'd play it check-call/check-call/check to begin with, so I wouldn't be in this spot in the first place. That said, I would fear the Q much less than the K, since EP raises with AK are much more common than raises with AQ or KQ. I don't know if that's enough to turn it into a good call, but if I'd played the land like that and the Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] came on the river, I guess I'd have to call.

[lehighguy]

They never fold overpairs, ever. I keep trying to beat that into my stupid head but it never stays.