Party .5/1: KK in EP

[zram21]

The villan in this hand is loose-passive pre-flop and fairly passive post-flop.

Party Poker .5/1 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero raises, 2 folds, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (9.5 sb) 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, MP2 folds, Button calls, UTG folds.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button calls.

River: (7.75 BB) A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero....

What should my plan be on the river?

[itsmesteve]

loose passive to me means he's willing to call your bet without a flush and may not raise even if he has one. He is almost certain not to raise w/ just an ace. Passive also means if he raises, you can fold. this has to be a SOLID read though, not 30 hands in poker tracker. bet the river.

[aron]

Seems like a clarkmeister theorem.
Heads up, out of position, 4:th flush falls on the river, bet, fold to a raise.

-aron

[Chris Daddy Cool]

B
E
T

[zram21]

[ QUOTE ]
Seems like a clarkmeister theorem.
Heads up, out of position, 4:th flush falls on the river, bet, fold to a raise.

-aron

[/ QUOTE ]

No the Clark theorem is when you haven't been showing aggression and then the 4th flush card hits.

[zram21]

[ QUOTE ]
B
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[/ QUOTE ]

Do you agree with folding to a raise if I bet?

[Firefly]

What exactly does the villan raise with here that you beat? Bet-fold

[zram21]

[ QUOTE ]
What exactly does the villan raise with here that you beat? Bet-fold

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with that. Which is why I guessing I am wondering what the purpose of the bet is. That is an awful scary board even for a calling station. I would think he is likely to fold most hands I beat, but raise with most I don't.

So if I check witht he intention of calling I get to show down for the same price as folding to a raise, but I also possibly induce a bluff or possibly pick up a bet if he is holding a Q and thinks that my check on the river now means he is good.

[eniven]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What exactly does the villan raise with here that you beat? Bet-fold

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with that. Which is why I guessing I am wondering what the purpose of the bet is. That is an awful scary board even for a calling station. I would think he is likely to fold most hands I beat, but raise with most I don't.

So if I check witht he intention of calling I get to show down for the same price as folding to a raise, but I also possibly induce a bluff or possibly pick up a bet if he is holding a Q and thinks that my check on the river now means he is good.

[/ QUOTE ]

The following is a quote from a detruncate post on Clarkmeister's theorem:

"The heart of the oft-talked about theorem is your lack of position. Even when betting is -EV, it's less -EV than checking, since your opponent has complete control over whether you have to spend another bet to see a showdown. Sometimes you make money by losing less.

For those who don't know, the idea is that you should bet HU out of position when the 4-flush hits on the river. If you check, your opponent will usually check through most of the hands that you beat, but bet most of the hands that beat you. It means you've created a situation in which you're almost always putting chips into the pot with the worst of it.

Betting, on the other hand, puts him in a difficult spot. He's rarely raising less than a near-nut flush card, so you can safely fold to a raise most of the time. If he's a very LAGgy, you should plan to call. Along similar lines, some knowledgable TAGs might try to exploit the situation, so you need to decide whether to call or fold on a case by case basis. Against average opponents, it's an easy bet/fold.

In brief: You spend the same when you're behind (since you're prepared to fold to a raise), but don't miss bets when you're ahead. Villain also might fold a hand that beats you -- I remember a guy dumping a set to my pair of aces, telling me that he just couldn't call, and asking me which flush card I had. He might have been full of it, but he seemed proud of his big laydown.

When you're in position, it becomes a straight-forward value bet % + bluff equity calculation."

[zram21]

Well I was fairly certain that leading out on the river was the correct play, but I wasn't exactly sure what to do if he raised. It seemed like if he raised check/call would have been the better approach.

On the river I bet and Button called.

Button showed (Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]) MHIG.

Thanks for the replies everyone.