AK vs a reraise (early tournament)

[willie24]

roughly 600 in this $10 tourney. 10 minutes into it.

not much of a read on opponent except that he has played maybe 20% or less of his hands and this is the first time he has raised or played in a raised pot.

both hero and button have roughly 1500 chips.
blinds are 10/20

3 limpers to hero who raises to 100 in MP3 with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. button raises to 260. folded to hero who calls.

flop (590): 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

hero checks. Button bets 260. hero calls.

turn (1110): J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

hero checks. button goes allin for 960. hero folds.

[Skip Brutale]

Why would you call pre-flop if you are going to fold after getting the flop you want?

[SossMan]

good fold. had to think about it for a while. You are chopping this pot at best.

tight players don't reraise limpers and a raiser w/ KQ (the only remotely possible hand that were still beating) and he's not betting QQ that hard on a K high board.

I would have bet into him on the flop since you checking twice makes folding a little tougher because he sees some weakness, but you likely lost the minimum on this hand.

AA, AK, KK for sure.

[ilya]

Given the read you have on this guy, I think you should just fold to the preflop re-raise.

[Jim T]

Bet on the flop.

That might cause you to lose more money in this hand, but the way you played this you had almost no chance at winning.

Ten minutes into the tournement, you had probably only seen an orbit or so. I don't see how anyone can read anything into him only playing 2 hands or so. All you can say is that he isn't extremely loose.

You also don't describe your own play to this point. Had you already raised a couple of pots? It doesn't seem like that's your style from the description of your play here, but you never know. If he thought YOU were loose, he could be making this play with a much wider range of hands.

Putting myself in his shoes, without having any read on you, after your check on the flop I wouldn't think you had a king - certainly not AK. I'd put you on an AQ, AJ, or middle pair. When you called the 260, I would gravitate toward middle pair.

Yet another check on the turn would really indicate weakness to me. I can see an aggressive player making these bets with many more hands than AA, KK or AK, especially at a $10 dollar tourney.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
good fold. had to think about it for a while. You are chopping this pot at best.

tight players don't reraise limpers and a raiser w/ KQ (the only remotely possible hand that were still beating) and he's not betting QQ that hard on a K high board.

I would have bet into him on the flop since you checking twice makes folding a little tougher because he sees some weakness, but you likely lost the minimum on this hand.

AA, AK, KK for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

this would be reasonable advice if hero had a better read. he wrote:

[ QUOTE ]
roughly 600 in this $10 tourney. 10 minutes into it.

not much of a read on opponent except that he has played maybe 20% or less of his hands

[/ QUOTE ]

so we're about 10 hands in, and villain has played about 2 hands. definitely a chance he's played 3. 20% VPIP is not all that tight, and it's over ten hands. even if he had folded every hand and i was 100% sure of it, it would not be enough to overwhelm my standard read of "i'm playing in a $10 tournament. people will splash around without the values like it's their job."

even if we assume that villain is the tightie that hero believes he is and that the only possible hands for him to have AA/KK/AK, there are 3 AA's, 1 KK, and 6 AK's. that means hero has 30% equity in the pot (get 50% 6 times in 10), and he's facing a bet that somewhat smaller than pot-sized, so a call is about break-even in terms of chipEV. (and early in a MTT chipEV is about the same as cashEV).

harrington has written that you should assume there's at least a 10% chance that an opponent is bluffing, even if you have a pretty good read on them. here we barely have a read at all.