UB $100 hand - first level

[ZeroPointMachine]

There's a higher flush draw, a set or a made flush.

If you are not drawing to your one lonely out you are still going to lose more than 30% of the time.

Is there a made flush 20% of the time or more here?

I don't know. But I can throw this away and convince myself it was the right play. If I call and I'm wrong I can't fix that.

My fragile ego mucks....

[SossMan]

how deep are we talking here? I haven't played UB for quite a while, but iirc, they start w/ 2500 and like 10-25 blinds? I don't think that 100x is deep enough to fold given this is an unknown player who can have a much wider range of hands that is either semi bluffing, protecting against the semibluff, protecting the best hand.
I go ahead and get it in because 200x is like twice as good (almost) as 100x.

Don't call preflop if you are going to question putting it in on a flop like this.

[nath]

first level is actually 5-10. they go 5-10, 10-20, 15-30, 20-40 in the first hour. so there is still lots of time if hero wants to wait.
(like i already said i probably get it in anyway.)

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
first level is actually 5-10. they go 5-10, 10-20, 15-30, 20-40 in the first hour. so there is still lots of time if hero wants to wait.
(like i already said i probably get it in anyway.)

[/ QUOTE ]

wow, 250x? that is pretty deep.

i think that I would need exact betting amounts, but it's getting closer to being able to find a fold.
Calling is more fun though.

[Nordberg]

I gave it some thought... Legy clearly has AA-QQ and probably has a spade if he doesn't have AA. DoubleLucky is the one I'm most worried about because he could easily hold KsQs and flat call here. I was pretty sure MP had a set. I decided to go with it and put my chips in. 22 for MP and DoubleLucky called with AK no spade (I think he wants this one back)

I don't necessarily think that since I call with this hand preflop I just blindly put my chips in after I flop a flush. I still have 200 bb's if I fold and MP could play a hand like JsTs this way.

[mikeymer]

I was at your table during this hand, hence I knew the results... I go in with this hand 100% of the time. That was a prime time situation to become a big stack early in that tournament and big stacks are especially dangerous in UB style tourneys.

Doublelucky knows this and calls because people would do this with AQ, 1 spade etc.

Gotta call, hurts to see the river quads though.

[CheckRaise]

I'm confused did the guy with 22 make quads or did you take it down?

[burningyen]

[ QUOTE ]
DoubleLucky is the one I'm most worried about because he could easily hold KsQs and flat call here.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd have a hard time putting DoubleLucky on KsQs given the preflop action and his position.

I just saw this post and I thought you might be interested in my respoonse.

First though, I hope no one will take offense if I point out that many of the people on this thread who seem so certain as to the middle position player's hand apparently know nothing about UB's $109 tournaments; they don't know the starting chips, they don't know the starting blinds, they don't know anything about this player or even the types of players this tournament tends to attract, but they somehow, none-the-less, do know he has a set. LOL. Why aren't you guys all tearing up the Extreme Tilt UB leader board?

While a set was certainly possible it would have been a hugely negative EV move to shove all-in in this spot. Risking all your chips to run people off of drawing with bad odds is the type of play you may see frequently in the $10 tourneys many here play, but it is fairly rare in this tourney. The much more probable explanation here (absent any evidence to the contrary) is a semi-bluff with a big spade.

As for Nordberg, his cold-call in the blinds of an utg raise and a m/p cold-call somehow didn't lead me to conclude he was playing 2 small spades (not that this would necessarily be a mistake in a deep-stack tournament like this one). Somehow I thought hands like AQ or AJ or a pocket pair were more likely, so with an As 2s 5s flop, I took him off of flopping the flush.

His call of the all-in worried me more than middle position's shove, but the fact was that if I was right about middle position being on a semi-bluff it was plus EV for me to call even if there was as little as a 60% chance Nordberg also was drawing with a pair and a spade. So I called and I was wrong on both counts.

I made a few notes and I'll adjust my play vs. these 2 opponents in the future ...and life (and poker) go on.