Anatomy of a downswing.

PocketJokers72 · #1 11-02-2005, 11:41 AM

Anyone see anything out of the ordinary here? I'm kind of new to PLO, but this seems to be in line with the downswings I've experienced in NL holdem, albeit it is quite big, 300BB+ down and up inside 1000 hands. Is this normal variance for PLO?

There is life after a 300BB swing. My bankroll can handle this without issue at 25PL. Maybe thats why it didn't really bother me when I was at the bottom.

BluffTHIS! · #2 11-02-2005, 12:21 PM

That's not a plo downswing but only a hiccup. Think a series of daily hiccups and you'll see what a downswing really is. And your variance should be less in nl unless you consistently play shorthanded.

PocketJokers72 · #3 11-02-2005, 12:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
That's not a plo downswing but only a hiccup. Think a series of daily hiccups and you'll see what a downswing really is. And your variance should be less in nl unless you consistently play shorthanded.

[/ QUOTE ]

I play 10max NLHE and PLO. Based on your 'hiccup' comment, I guess I should play within a larger bankroll (1000 BBs? 1200?) for PLO than for NLHE. The variance won't bother me, as long as I am mentally prepared for it.

Thanks.

#4 11-02-2005, 12:37 PM

What I have been told when I asked this question was 30-50 buy-ins was generally considered a decent bankroll for PLO. So that would be 1500-2500 PTBB.

beset7 · #5 11-02-2005, 01:38 PM

I wouldn't consider it a legitimate downswing in PLO until you hit -10 buyins (1000xbb) over a decent sample. When you are playing PLO regularly, if you are playing anywhere near optimally, you are going to have regular fluctuations in the 300-400xBB level sometimes on a daily basis.

joewatch · #6 11-02-2005, 03:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
if you are playing anywhere near optimally, you are going to have regular fluctuations in the 300-400xBB level sometimes on a daily basis.

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What??? If I were hitting -300 BB on a daily basis, I wouldn't be playing this game anymore!

beset7 · #7 11-02-2005, 03:43 PM

fluctations include both up and downswings. during a rocky time, i think it should be totally normal to go up 4 BIs one day, down 3, up 1, up 5 down 2, Up 3, down 4, etc etc. But I, and the others i know who have swings like this, push a lot of small edges; from what i know about your game you may take a lot of variance reducing measures and fold in spots where i would be ready to gamble. I've had 15 buyin downswings before and still have a long term WR that i'm very happy with.

Variance goes both way Joe. Of course if I someone lost 3 buyins every day they'd be broke shortly.

What's your standard deviation?

joewatch · #8 11-03-2005, 01:44 AM

PTO says I have an sd/hr of $54.6 at the $100 level over 18,000 hands. Since I normally play 3-hour sessions, that puts my variance at about +/- 300bb per session, so I guess you are right!

RoundTower · #9 11-03-2005, 09:46 AM

How can your variance be 300bb/session? Do you mean standard deviation?

#10 11-03-2005, 12:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
PTO says I have an sd/hr of $54.6 at the $100 level over 18,000 hands. Since I normally play 3-hour sessions, that puts my variance at about +/- 300bb per session, so I guess you are right!

[/ QUOTE ]
Basic statistics: A standard dev of X/hr does not mean you have a std dev of 3X/3 hours. It will be significantly smaller. It can vary depending on the nature of the distruibution, but IIRC for a normal distribution your std dev for N hours will be sqrt(N)* your std dev for 1 hour.

Your std dev is about 27 BB/hr (similar to mine at the $25 tables btw) so your std dev/3hrs should be about 27BB*1.73 = 47 BB. So you'll be within a range of +/- 2 SD 95% of the time (assuming a normal distribution) so you're looking at +/- 100 BB, not 300.