Tough Turn With QQ in the BB

ninjaunderwear · #1 10-16-2005, 10:42 PM

MP1 is laggy at 39.8/18.07/1.73 after 166 hands.
SB is standard fish at 24.2/5.05/6.80 after 99 hands.

Party Poker 1.00/2.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 folds, UTG+1 calls, 1 folds, MP1 calls, 4 folds, SB completes, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, SB calls.

Flop: (8.00 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, SB calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP1 raises, SB 3-bets, Hero ???

Pre-flop and flop are standard. The turn looks like a good card for my ladies, but apparently it was a better card for the others. With a decent sized pot, every option seems to be a pretty good choice.

Anything of the choices seem more attractive to you than the others?

milesdyson · #2 10-16-2005, 10:47 PM

getting 11.5:2 or worse facing a check 3-bet from a standard "fish" (albeit with an amazingly high aggression factor), i see this as an easy fold. we may have 0 outs, 2 outs, or 8 outs (assuming SB has at least two pair). based on the check 3-bet, i think we have an average of 4 outs here and we can't bank on any implied odds for our hidden outs.

gopnik · #3 10-16-2005, 11:50 PM

I think you need to fold here. You are sandwitched between 2 people who really like their hands. It might easily be capped behind you and pot will be too big on the river to fold.

Eeegah · #4 10-16-2005, 11:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
SB is standard fish at 24.2/5.05/6.80 after 99 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm assuming you meant an AF of 0.68.

Obviously he can beat one pair, and it really looks like he slowplayed either a set or a straight, or maybe. We have outs vs 2 pair, but I still think we can fold this.

Duerig · #5 10-17-2005, 12:15 AM

I think I would fold. You aren't even closing the action here so god knows how many more bets you might have to put in to see a showdown.

bozlax · #6 10-17-2005, 01:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
SB is a highly peculiar fish at 24.2/5.05/6.80 after 99 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

6.8?! Yikes. And he's fairly passive preflop. Ever seen him raise AA or KK preflop, or is it only QQ-99/AK/AQ/etc? Or is it only AA/KK/AK, and he routinely limps the rest?

With that kind of AF I suspect that SB has been buying a lot of pots on the turn and river, no? What's he shown down? That's going to be the answer to your question. Once you're at 1/2, stats alone don't cut it any more.

#7 10-17-2005, 08:46 AM

Grunching...

Assuming we're up against two pair w/ jacks, or JJJ and that we are OOP, I would call down from here to the showdown UI.

ninjaunderwear · #8 10-17-2005, 09:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
SB is standard fish at 24.2/5.05/1.11 after 99 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
FMP. Not sure where that other number came from.

I thought about this again while laying in bed last night. It seems to be a clear fold to me. I can't imagine being ahead of any hands here; I don't have many outs to "catch up" and I certainly don't have the odds to draw to those outs; it may be capped behind me.

numeri · #9 10-17-2005, 09:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
MP1 is laggy at 39.8/18.07/1.73 after 166 hands.
SB is standard fish at 24.2/5.05/6.80 after 99 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
Is there a typo here somewhere? Since when is 6.80 PF aggression "standard fish"? Both of these players are aggressive postflop, so I don't think we can fold here. Call 2 or cap and see the river.

numeri · #10 10-17-2005, 09:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
SB is standard fish at 24.2/5.05/1.11 after 99 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
FMP. Not sure where that other number came from.

I thought about this again while laying in bed last night. It seems to be a clear fold to me. I can't imagine being ahead of any hands here; I don't have many outs to "catch up" and I certainly don't have the odds to draw to those outs; it may be capped behind me.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ahhh... that's what I get for grunching. Yes - this is an easy fold now.