$11; 2nd stack w/6 players holding AQo against early raiser

[tewall]

I don't have the hand history, so I'll describe the situation. There's 6 players left. I'm the second stack (2300) In early position, either UTG or +1, the big stack (3300) raises to 700. The blinds are 100/200. The other 4 stacks are dividing the 2400 left amongst themselves more or less evenly. The early raise is likely to be a steal. I act 2 people after him.

I came over the top thinking:
a)Even though I'm the second stack, the blinds are still pretty high, even for me.
b)Big stack is on a likely steal.
c)My hand is a likley favorite over his.

However, I'm questioning my decision, as it sort of bubblish. However, these guys could be around a long time. But still it might be better to wait until I can be the first one in.

Thoughts?

[pineapple888]

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a)Even though I'm the second stack, the blinds are still pretty high, even for me.

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You have 11.5xBB, generally a spot in which you want to be conservative.
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b)Big stack is on a likely steal.


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How do you know this?

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c)My hand is a likley favorite over his.


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But not likely to be a big favorite.

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But still it might be better to wait until I can be the first one in.

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Correct. The last thing I'd want to do here is take on the one stack that can bust you out. In general, I'd need [aa-qq] here to take a stand.

[xJMPx]

Well, the HH would certainly be nice because I’m confused to when you are acting and how many a left behind you.

You said you are UTG or UTG+1, but you act 2 people after the raise. So, you have to be on the button if the raise is coming from UTG.

UTG – Big Stack Raise?
UTG+1
CO
Button – Hero?
SB
BB

So, assuming it’s a raise from UTG, 2 folds, and then the action is to you with just the blinds to act I would come over the top as well with only the blinds left in the hand. This is, of course, based on your read that this is a steal. If the big stack has not been abusing the table, I would lay this down. But, you are right, you are not far enough ahead of the blinds and there are too many people left to miss out on opportunities to pick up chips. Not to mention that this will give you the chip lead and give you the possibility of owning the bubble.

[tewall]

No, I said the big stack was UTG or UTG+1 (but the way I worded it could be a big ambiguous). You interpreted what I wrote correctly.

[tewall]

Thanks for the responses.

I'm still in the same quandry I was before. Two answers giving the same arguments that were going through my head. It seems to me that pineapple is probably right.

Likely steal was based on his activity. I didn't see the hands he was playing, because he wasn't getting called, but made my read based on frequency.

[xJMPx]

[ QUOTE ]
No, I said the big stack was UTG or UTG+1 (but the way I worded it could be a big ambiguous). You interpreted what I wrote correctly.

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Ah, I see that now. You're missing a '.' [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

Guess I figured it out anyway.

[xJMPx]

I just put this in SNGPT assuming the four unknown stack sizes each have 600 in chips. If you assume UTG will call your push, there is no range he could have that makes this +$EV.

Now, the question is, how do you incorporate that into the times he folds to figure you if it would be closer to or even +EV.

[tewall]

I was surprised he called me, I can say that. After all, my stack is big enough to hurt him.

I'm sure the push is +EV, from an SNGPT standpoint. I'm just sure it's worth the risk. That is, I can conservatively play to get into the money. Or I can make a potentially risky play that's +EV and get busted.

[pineapple888]

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I was surprised he called me, I can say that. After all, my stack is big enough to hurt him.

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It's an $11. If he has something, he's almost always calling. If he doesn't have anything, he's still likely to call to "keep you honest". FE goes way down at an 11.

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I'm sure the push is +EV, from an SNGPT standpoint. I'm just sure it's worth the risk. That is, I can conservatively play to get into the money. Or I can make a potentially risky play that's +EV and get busted.

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The whole point of SNGPT is that it measures risk vs. reward. I think you are using "+EV" inconsistently here.

[xJMPx]

What did he have?