3/6(6-max): AKs flops gutshot royal

[AceHiStation]

Villain had KTo and once I bet the turn I was kicking myself.

[soah]

Why push the turn there? It looks pretty clear that your hand is no good and your opponent isn't folding. He has screwed up bigtime by leaving himself $200 in a $550 pot. I'd take advantage and stick the rest in on good rivers and save the rest for a rainy day if I don't improve.

[cardsharkk04]

What do you guys do if you check call the turn and hit your spade on the river. Lead out or check?

[flawless_victory]

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, K.

[fuzzbox]

Check behind on the turn.

but since you did bet, just call the minraise and hope to hit a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] He gives you 4.5:1, and he will pay you the other 200 if you hit (so 6.5:1). That seems like a good deal to me.

[rikz]

The stop & go min-raise from villain looks like a strong hand more than a bluff or a weak ace (AT?). So, he must think he's ahead on the flop and the turn. What hands would he call your raise with from the BB that are strong on flop and turn to play this way? Well, he might have AQs (TPTK turns into 2-pair on turn), T9s for a straight (but this is a loose call oop, so less likely), and 88/JJ (set on the flop). Less likely candidates include a KT for a straight, but that seems unlikely for him to call your raise with OOP from BB, and I think a villain with QQ might have reraised preflop.

So, where are you on the turn if villain isn't bluffing with air or an unimproved low pair or a low flush draw (or whatever):

Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing Qs Js 8c Ad
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ks 15 34.09 29 65.91 0 0.00 0.341
Ac Qc 29 65.91 15 34.09 0 0.00 0.659

Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing Qs Js 8c Ad
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ks 11 25.00 33 75.00 0 0.00 0.250
Tc 9c 33 75.00 11 25.00 0 0.00 0.750

Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing Qs Js 8c Ad
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ks 11 25.00 33 75.00 0 0.00 0.250
8d 8h 33 75.00 11 25.00 0 0.00 0.750

Without doing all the math, I think you are a little better off than 3:1 behind and you get better than 4:1 to call. So, I'd say call the min-raise on the turn, check behind on the river if villain checks, and consider folding if villain pushes that 5d river card.

[rikz]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you guys do if you check call the turn and hit your spade on the river. Lead out or check?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd lead out with a bet that is the largest amount I think a set or straight or AQ top two-pair will call even though he "knows" I must have the flush. Maybe $50?