River Decision with Trips

colgin · #1 09-29-2005, 11:54 PM

Villain is loose pre-flop (around 54%) but fairly (but not totaaly) passive post-flop.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.40 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

Turn: (3.20 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

River: (5.20 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero . . .

Call or raise?

New001 · #2 09-30-2005, 12:25 AM

I think I'm just calling there probably.

Catt · #3 09-30-2005, 12:31 AM

I am defintiely not raising if he's truly passive. Against really passive straight-forward guys (especially if the passive read is based on both stats and watching him play post-flop) I can sometimes fold the turn. Flame away.

#4 09-30-2005, 01:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is loose pre-flop (around 54%) but fairly (but not totaaly) passive post-flop.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.40 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

Turn: (3.20 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

River: (5.20 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero . . .

Call or raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

This hinges on why you called the turn. If you called the turn because you thought you were good, then raise. If you called the turn strictly to hit a gutshot 10, then fold.

If you have no idea why you called the turn, then calling might be the best river option.

colgin · #5 09-30-2005, 08:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If you have no idea why you called the turn, then calling might be the best river option.

[/ QUOTE ]

I called the turn (although I think that decision is close) planning to fold the river unimproved. While I thought it very likely that BB had top pair or better I thought it was possible (though not terribly likely) that he would donkbet the turn with a worse hand here. However, if he followed through with a river bet I could be reasonably certain he had top pair or better and therefore would fold unimproved. I had as many as 9 outs if he donkbet with Q-x (though far fewer against other holdings) so I called there.

I really only planned to raise if I hit my straight. I thought twice with my trip Jacks but just called as his possible holdings include QJ or T-x.

I do think that the turn decision is close though and would be interested if others have thoughts on that.

FWIW, Villain had Q4 and MHIG.

#6 09-30-2005, 10:56 AM

Given the hand he had (which is almost as optimal as it can be for your hand) your turn call is slightly +EV. You are getting (EDIT) 4.2:1 plus implied odds on a 4:1 shot. Any other reasonable hand he might have makes you a bigger dog. A made straight gives you 3 outs making you 14:1. If he has KT, you are drawing dead to a chop.

The turn call doesn't look good.

#7 09-30-2005, 11:21 AM

I don't buy he has a straight on the turn. Even passive players know how to checkraise.

I raise the river and fold to a 3 bet if he's the weak "I'll still call even tho I know I'm beaten" type (most are). If he isn't that type, and the pot was a little bigger, I might raise the turn. I see a lot of weak players bet out in this spot, and to me it screams some crappy TP hand, and they will fold to a raise and pat themsleves on the back that they applied the "bet for information" concept so well, because you obviously had a T. But I need a pretty good read to do that, as most 5/10 players are still just fish that call down with any part of the board.