400 NL-- QQ on the river, bet or check?

[JasonP530]

400 NL online. Villian has ~270 when the hand starts, and I have him covered.

I raise to 15 after one limper, he calls out of the BB, and the limper folds.

The flop is 953 and 2 diamonds. He checks, I bet $25 and he min checkraises to $50. Obviously, this is worrisome, but with position, I decide to see what he does on the turn. Should I just fold the flop most times there?

Anyways, the turn is a 2, and he bets $50. I think it looks like he is sucking me in, but it could also be a continuation of his raise. With the amounts he is betting, he is unlikely to get all in on the river, so I thought it strange, and called.

The river was a 2, and he checked to me. I was actually planning to fold if he pushed(I think) Should I check behind, or value bet about $100, when he has $180 or so left? Any thoughts about what to do in the hand before the river?

Thanks,
Jason

[Gregg777]

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Should I just fold the flop most times there?

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I wouldn't, and I can be pretty nitty [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

On the flop it looks like villain has A9, K9 or a flush draw and doesn't respect your continuation bet, probably figuring you for two overs.

He throws a blocking bet on the turn, you call, river is a blank and he gives up.

If you have never seen him, I expect a check raise here almost never, so a value bet is fine, but expect a fold more often than not. Which is why if I played him regularly I would check behind for information.

[Karak567]

That's a nice river. I value bet it.

[aggie]

It seems like we're ahead. I push this river and hope he puts me on a flush draw or two overs. The problem with betting $100 is it looks like a value bet and villian may be more inclined to pay off a larger bet because it looks like a steal. It's also a disaster situation if villian checkraises for his remaining $80.

[flawless_victory]

allin in on river... this should prob be moved to micro stakes.

[diconoclastx]

the minraise and the small turn bet looks like a draw pricing himself in. esp after that river check, you know you are way ahead.

[JasonP530]

Well, I bet 100, and he moved in for the rest and I called. He showed a oddly played set, and I was no good.

[DrPublo]

Out of the BB, there's a decent chance you counterfitted him on the river. I bet $75-100, and probably fold to a c/r all in because he'll never do that with a worse hand, I think.

The Doc

I check the river. I don't see you getting paid off here with anything besides maybe A9 or TT,JJ. If he was bluffing, then he's folding anyway. I think the little you make (value bet x # of times someone calls your bet) is much less than a potential CR. If he CRs, you have no choice but to call.