laid down a straight to scary river, big bet, possible split

[dark_horse]

had to take the full amount of allowed time to think about this one...

villian stats after 341 hands:
52/3.1/1.4

Flop aggression: 0.95
Turn aggression: 1.04
River aggression: 3.43 (never seen this disparity before)

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.5 BB (10 handed) converter

BB ($55)
Hero ($130.3)
UTG+1 ($39.05)
UTG+2 ($46.85)
MP1 ($159.1)
MP2 ($28.85)
MP3 ($58.4)
CO ($51.34)
Button ($10.96)
SB ($41.05)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, CO calls $2, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls $1.75, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($6.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $5</font>, CO calls $5, SB folds.

Turn: ($16.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $10</font>, Hero calls $5.

River: ($36.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $30</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $66.50

thoughts - his turn aggression is much lower than his flop aggression (and the betsizes are commensurate to that). this makes his turn miniraise more suspicious. i was planning on calling the miniraise based on the size of the pot and call a moderate bet on the river, but once he blew me out of the water with a potsized bet and leaving himself an odd amount of his stack left over i just couldn't call. i've seen pro players on TV make these weird bets where they leave barely anything left of their stack after betting, and the announcer always says (well gee, i don't understand why he didn't just move the rest of his chips in there). i guess it's because the player wants to give the impression that he really wants to get called, and that he's obviously committed himself to the pot, to indicate strength. however... this player isn't thinking like that [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

could it have been a last ditch bluff? probably not this time, given flop action. he very well could have had an ace and my call would result in a split, but calling that much of a bet just didn't seem worth it for what was in the pot and what i invested in it. but then again, he'd be afraid that i had the flush if he only had a wheel. it was a hard laydown for me but i did it. should it have been an easy fold? no stress? i'm learning..

[savman]

underebetting the turn to scare cards is a good way to get moved off the best hand. as it was played, this guy could be playing this way with any two. you looked weak on the turn and he attacked you. given his river aggression stats i just dont see how in the world you can fold here. folding here is weak tight IMO. you cant be sure that you are winning every pot you have to make a read and go with it. if you lose... reload, this guy is going to be shoveling chips into the pot on most rivers, wait for a decent hand like top pair, build a pot and check him the river and you can get your money back.

[dark_horse]

i spent the past day thinking about this hand. you could very well be right. but the way the betting went and given his flop aggression, villian could also have 66 or better. i understand what you're saying and when i first read it i was really beating myself up over it. but i don't know that i'm beating a bluff 50% of the time here.

and admittedly, i didn't look at his river aggression stat until after the hand. d'oh.