Folding TT getting 2 to 1 odds?

[Sykes]

$1 MTT on stars

In the money already

I have 12K with 400/800 blinds (blinds going up in 9 minutes)

I get TT utg (been playing pretty tight at this point, never showing a hand).

I raise to 2400, fold to button who goes all in for 3200 total. SB folds, and BB (32K) pushes.

I ...


I'm getting about 2 to 1 here.

3200x3 + 9200 = 18000

10000 to call into 18000

[Exitonly]

it's not a normal 2:1, w/ the side pots and what not...i think i fold here

[CardSharpCook]

yeah, you're not walking away from this one. PUT IT IN THE POT!!!

[Sykes]

Some other hands to evaluate:


Blinds: 100/200 ante 25
I have 2700ish on button
Fold to me, I have A5o, I open for 600
SB has 1700, and BB has 11K
SB pushes for 1100 more,

Insta-call getting 2 to 1?










PokerStars Game #3001674895: Tournament #14705129, Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (300/600) - 2005/11/07 - 23:19:32 (ET)
Table '14705129 108' Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: near the end (14025 in chips)
Seat 2: Sykes54 (9405 in chips)
Seat 3: jbirkby (9690 in chips)
Seat 4: johnkkprice (29134 in chips)
Seat 6: geegirl100 (9993 in chips)
Seat 7: grfont (34522 in chips)
Seat 8: KINGHAWK (9566 in chips)
Seat 9: almonshooter (6160 in chips)
near the end: posts the ante 50
Sykes54: posts the ante 50
jbirkby: posts the ante 50
johnkkprice: posts the ante 50
geegirl100: posts the ante 50
grfont: posts the ante 50
KINGHAWK: posts the ante 50
almonshooter: posts the ante 50
near the end: posts small blind 300
Sykes54: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Sykes54 [Qs Ah]
jbirkby: folds
johnkkprice: raises 600 to 1200
geegirl100: folds
grfont: folds
Northernguy is connected
KINGHAWK: raises 3000 to 4200
almonshooter: folds
near the end: folds
Sykes54:

Insta-fold, correct?







PokerStars Game #3001723101: Tournament #14705129, Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (300/600) - 2005/11/07 - 23:24:35 (ET)
Table '14705129 108' Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: near the end (3275 in chips)
Seat 2: Sykes54 (8255 in chips)
Seat 3: jbirkby (7940 in chips)
Seat 4: johnkkprice (41034 in chips)
Seat 5: Northernguy (8295 in chips)
Seat 6: geegirl100 (8543 in chips)
Seat 7: grfont (34272 in chips)
Seat 8: KINGHAWK (11816 in chips)
Seat 9: almonshooter (8460 in chips)
near the end: posts the ante 50
Sykes54: posts the ante 50
jbirkby: posts the ante 50
johnkkprice: posts the ante 50
Northernguy: posts the ante 50
geegirl100: posts the ante 50
grfont: posts the ante 50
KINGHAWK: posts the ante 50
almonshooter: posts the ante 50
geegirl100: posts small blind 300
grfont: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Sykes54 [Jd Js]
KINGHAWK: folds
almonshooter: calls 600
near the end: folds
Sykes54:


ALL-in?

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
it's not a normal 2:1, w/ the side pots and what not...i think i fold here

[/ QUOTE ]

How close is the fold?

[CardSharpCook]

alright, dude. Put your opponent on a range of hands and determine your eq vs that range. With TT and this pot eq it is pretty easy call. Do you own math though. BB's hand range includes 16 AKs, 16 AQs, 24 AA-JJ, and then whatever else you think he does this with. Personally, I think he does this with 77-99, and AJ and possibly KQ.

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
Personally, I think he does this with 77-99, and AJ and possibly KQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the only reason it turned from a fold to a call for me. I took the full 60 seconds before I clicked call.

[Exitonly]

you have 31% at winning both pots (If shortty has any pair, any broadway, A7s+, A8o+) and ( if big stack pushes to isolate w/ AJs+, AQo+, TT+)


so.. er the short guy has to win the main pot and you ahve to win the side pot like ... 10% of the time .. something like that.. im tired, and can't think of how to do the math on that at the moment, but it looks like a close play either way.. i'm leaning towards a fold.

[CardSharpCook]

If big stack can't have a pair lower than yours, sure. 34% eq.

Hand 1: 23.0554 % [ 00.22 00.01 ] { AA-22, AKs---ATs--, A8s-A7s, KQs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-A8o, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }
Hand 2: 33.9873 % [ 00.33 00.01 ] { TT }
Hand 3: 42.9572 % [ 00.42 00.01 ] { AA-TT, AKs-AJs, AKo-AJo }

Add in 77-99 and you are leading (barely)

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 24.1134 % [ 00.24 00.01 ] { AA-22, AKs---ATs--, A8s-A7s, KQs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-A8o, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }
Hand 2: 38.2760 % [ 00.38 00.01 ] { TT }
Hand 3: 37.6106 % [ 00.37 00.01 ] { AA-77, AKs-AJs, AKo-AJo }