First post - Don't go easy on me

[stir]

Sorry, but I'm running a little dense today...are you saying never c/r your OESD on the flop?

If that's NOT what you're saying could you please give an example of when you would c/r an OESD on the flop?

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, but I'm running a little dense today...are you saying never c/r your OESD on the flop?

If that's NOT what you're saying could you please give an example of when you would c/r an OESD on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

When you had 4+ players trapped between you and a late bettor I would check/raise the OESD

[DeathDonkey]

I would if I had 5 opponents all calling but here we are only slightly better than breakeven and we are giving up the chance to pop the turn when we hit. Also if UTG 3 bets and anyone folds our CR gets worse and worse.

Shillx has this one dead on. Btw the preflop call is super super easy.

-DeathDonkey

[Shillx]

You are dead wrong. A very good player who posted in the long flush draw thread would say that the flop check/raise is stupid. I just happen to call it awful. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

The thing you have to understand about a straight draw is that it is hidden. With a flush draw, everyone will slow down when 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]'s or 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]'s hit the board. When a 5 hits the board in this hand, who would expect someone to be playing 97s??? So because no one will notice the straight, you can collect an ass load of bets by being passive while you are still drawing (and then come to life whne a seemingly safe card hits).



If we check/raise the flop and all goes well.

p(win) = .315
n = 3 (2 SB + 2 BB) = +9 BB (we get one bet on turn/river with a straight)
p(lose) = .685
n = -2 SB - 1 BB = -2 BB

EV = 9(.315) - 2(.685) = +1.47 BB/Hand

Now lets say we check/call. We check/raise when we hit the straight. So we get 6 BB on that street alone!

p(win) = .315
n = 3 (1 SB + 2 BB + 1 BB) = 10.5 BB
p(lose) = .685
n = - 1 SB - 1 BB = -1.5 BB

EV = 10.5(.315) - 1.5(.685) = +2.28 BB/Hand

Check/calling >> Check/raising and it isn't even close.

Brad

[moose47]

I appreciate all the comments so far. I know I played this one pretty badly on the flop and turn. With respect to the preflop call I really didn't think it was that close. When UTG raised I immediately put him on a high pocket pair or maybe AK. With that in mind, I know I'm going to have to hit the straight or the flush to win the hand. I was thinking that if I did hit it then it was likely he would end up with an overpair and pay me off nicely. So it was actually his low PFR% that made me more likely to call. Is this reasoning terribly flawed?

[Catt]

Brad - numbers don't lie, but those numbers rest upon assumptions, and what I'm pushing back on is your assumptions.

C/R'ing this flop does not foreclose collecting more than one bet on the turn or river if a 5 falls. If you assume a flop C/R limits your future action this way, then it's clearly a bad play.

I'm arguing that it does not limit you to collecting only one bet on the turn and river. You can C/R this flop, have a 5 fall on the turn and C/R the turn too! And plenty of players will call the turn raise!

Didn't you just point out in another thread that in certain situations at these limits you need to turn off your brain (i.e., a BB stone cold bluff-betting into 5 players on the flop)? IMHO, you're giving too much credit to the thought process, analytical abilities, and impulse control (ability to act properly on good analytical abilities) to too many players in a typical Party 1/2 game.

[Shillx]

If we check/raise the flop and all goes well.

p(win) = .315
n = 3 (2 SB + 3 BB) = +12 BB (we even get a check/raise in with the nuts!)
p(lose) = .685
n = -2 SB - 1 BB = -2 BB

EV = 12(.315) - 2(.685) = +2.41 BB/Hand

Now lets say we check/call. We check/raise when we hit the straight.

p(win) = .315
n = 3 (1 SB + 2 BB + 1 BB) = 10.5 BB
p(lose) = .685
n = - 1 SB - 1 BB = -1.5 BB

EV = 10.5(.315) - 1.5(.685) = +2.28 BB/Hand

So even if we get a check/raise in we gain .13 BB/Hand. There are lots of other factors too that you have to consider. Like maybe having someone 3-bet when we have the nuts, or people folding out when we check/raise the nuts. We also have to consider that the flop check/raise might backfire.

So if everything works out and we get super tricky and pull a 2nd check/raise off we make .13 BB. I guarantee you that if you check/raise the flop in this spot and I check/call, I will do much better then you in the long run.

Brad

[Catt]

You're gaining ground on me, but I'm not there yet (but then I can be pretty dense).

That the C/C is a superior play versus C/R rests largely, IMHO, on the thinness of the value of bets on the flop against only 2 players (I continue to believe my own assumptions about the standard of play to expect at this level, but we may disagree on that).

With 3 (or 4) passive opponents on the flop, does your view of the superior play change to a C/R?

[VBM]

this is an awful spot for it and i can't believe anyone is actually recommending Hero check-raise this flop.

You have no high card value.
You have no possible flush draw.
You have 3 bettors behind you and the PFR sandwiched in the middle.

I don't see what raising accomplishes here.

You already have a range of holdings for PFR (he's only raised KK, AA, AK so far)
You're not raising for value b/c there is no value to protect.
You can't really raise for a free card, b/c you're not in position.

i think i'd check-call this the whole way down...

[Catt]

[ QUOTE ]
this is an awful spot for it and i can't believe anyone is actually recommending Hero check-raise this flop.

You have no high card value.
You have no possible flush draw.
You have 3 bettors behind you and the PFR sandwiched in the middle.

[/ QUOTE ]

My initial support for going for the check-raise on the flop is based on the following: (1) the pfr is on my immediate left; (2) there are 3 opponents with me on the flop; (3) I have an OESD and on this raggedly flop with no flush draws, I think if I hit my straight I'm probably good; (4) if everyhting goes to plan, pfr bets and all call -- I am now getting a raise in and trapping the field for one more when my chances of winning by the river are ~32% and I don't think my C/R cools my turn and river action enough to make it a bad play; and (5) the risk I run is getting 3-bet by the pfr and facing the whole field with 2 cold when it comes back to them.

If instead my check is bet by a late position player would I still be raising? No. If pfr bets and MP2 raises am I 3-betting? No. If pfr bets and two players fold, am I raising? No.

My argument was and is based upon three options at this flop: (1) bet out; (2) check with the intention of raising; (3) check and then only call if circumstances don't work out as hoped for the intended raise.

If we take away Hero's actual bet but assume that pfr checks and MP2 bets, and one limper folds, am I still C/R'ing or C/C'ing? I probably just call because I don't want to face pfr with 2 cold and end-up HU with MP2. Brad has gone a long way to convincing me that this raise against only 2 opponents is marginal at best and likely materially -EV compared to C/C'ing. If a raise risks bringing it to HU, then it's really bad.

I may have added confusion here by discussing my intended line on this flop from 1st position instead of clearly laying out the assumptions about player actions (given that we can only guess how this flop plays absent Hero's lead bet). I qon't speak for Topspin, but I think checking here is clearly better than betting, and raising or calling when the action comes back to you depends on events.

Are you saying that a C/R is horrible if pfr bets and all call back to you?