Hand reading exercise and river action

[Aces McGee]

Hi guys

Here's a hand I played in one of my first two orbits at a Party $3/$6 table. I think it could be a very good hand reading exercise. Hopefully someone will find this useful.

Unfortunately, because this was one of the first hands I played at the table, I don't have any reads for you.

UTG and UTG+1 both limp. It folds to me in the hijack and I raise 9d9c. The blinds get out the way and we take the flop three-handed.

The flop is 6d 5c 3d.

They both check to me, and I bet. UTG calls, UTG+1 now raises. I 3-bet. UTG calls, UTG+1 caps, we both call. 3 players to the turn for ~9 BB.

The turn is the Qc. UTG checks, UTG+1 (flop capper) checks, and I bet. Both call.

River is the 9h. UTG checks, UTG+1 bets.

What does UTG+1 have? What should I do on the river with my set of nines?

Post your reasoning.

-McGee

[Russ McGinley]

The only hand that worries me here is 87. I would be inclined to think it's also more likely to be 8d7d than 87o due to his mega-aggression on the flop then his passiveness on the turn.

[Nfinity]

In white: <font color="white">Capper has 78 but you should still call. </font>

[@bsolute_luck]

call unless you can fold to a 3-bet. OESD just came in.

[sean c]

7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] but i'm not folding a set for one bet on the river ever so i call utg probably missed his flush draw so he is folding i doubt your getting an overcall here.

Reasoning: he has a huge equity edge on the flop if this is his hand but on the turn his equity dips just low enough to not value bet this also utg may have a stronger flush draw. If he does have some goofy two pair like 56 suited and limped early and checked the turn with it he is a fish.

[RiverDood]

Nice quiz.

45% chance of 78 -- which is a pity for Hero.

45% chance of A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], which explains why the flop thrilled him and the turn didn't do a thing for him. He's now trying a last-ditch stab at the pot with his busted draws, hoping to fold a single pair.

5% chance of 33 or 55. That fits the pre-flop and flop betting fine. It doesn't mesh with the turn at all -- and at a table with savvy players the probability of this is zero. But let's make a little room for illogical play.

5% chance of 77 or 88. Same basic train of thought as above.

I'd say call his river bet and see who's got what. Don't raise. If he's got you beat with the straight he will reraise you and if he's behind with the A2, he will fold. Only the last two hands would obligingly feed you more money if you raised, and they're unlikely. So it's hard to see how a raise by you here accomplishes anything.

[Shillx]

Fold [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]

Wow what a poor river bet by the villian. I could see betting a river [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] if he made a flush, but the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is the money card to get a check/raise in if he does have the straight.

[homebrewer]

I usually don't do these but I'll give it a shot.

UTG+1 shows some interesting aggression on flop. If he's flopped a set, say 66 or 55, I see no reason for him to slow down after the turn. Unless, he puts you on QQ - which I suppose is possible w/your preflop aggression.

If he's playing 87d, then his flop play is pretty aggro - but given that the flop would give him an OESD and a flush draw - perhaps it is ok and might get him a free turn. UTG+1's check/calling and not check/raising the turn and not trapping UTG and hero for another bet seems consistent with 87d and not a set. Then the bet by UTG+1 on the river for the 9h (non-club) seems to suggest 87d.

[homebrewer]

Oh yeah, what should hero do? Call.

[Aces McGee]

Nice work, fellas. He did indeed have 8d7d.

-McGee