River bluff raise, is this the right time?

I almost never bluff raise the river (my secret is out) but the set up seemed good here (although I think I needed to consider the villain more carefully, as he is 42/4/.8, so probably not the folding type which was a mistake). He raised me on the flop, but then backed off on the 3rd flush card on the turn. I bet out with the 2nd nut flush draw and overcards. Because of the villain's fear of the flush and then my bet, I was playing that he had me on the flush, so when he bet out the river, where 99% of the time I would have folded, I raised, so he would put me on the made flush. He waited almost the full amount of time and called. Is this a reasonable time to bluff raise the river? Was it just the wrong opponent?


Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 2 folds, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (8.40 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, CO folds, BB folds, UTG raises, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.20 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

River: (8.20 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 12.20 BB

[W. Deranged]

There are several reasons this river bluff raise is really -EV:

1. Look at the board texture. The turn and river came undercard to a T. Villain has very little reason to believe his T is not good. If he was check-raising with a flush draw, it hit, and he's certainly not folding a flush draw.

2. You haven't really represented enough of a hand to make villain afraid. Most monster hands would have either three-bet the flop or raised the turn. Waiting to raise the river doesn't make much sense here with a hand like AA or ever TT. Only 88 would be a logical hand to raise the river with. Even though most donkish opponents don't read hands nearly that well, they do have some sense for these types of things.

3. You picked the totally wrong opponent. A 42/2/.8 is a passive fish. Fish don't like to check-raise the flop with hands they have any intent to lay down at any point. They also in general don't fold the river for one bet.

4. The pot is too big. Though it makes the bluff more valuable when it works, I think the pot is effectively big enough that like 60% of opponents at 2/4 are simply NEVER folding anything because the pot's too big.

I think this bluff is like a 1.8 BB mistake.

I check behind on the turn.

BTW. Terrible river.

I think bluff raising this river is wrong here. Especially when if he had a T and the scare card came on the turn for him (Diamond) and you bet it and he calls you and then proceeds to lead the river. Also, the river card isnt exaclty an ideal card to bluff raise on (ie. Lower than a T, possible completer for a straight, and not another diamond) You have almost no chance of making him fold in this spot.

Furthermore his stats suggest that he is a passive player and most of the time they wont be playing agressivly on the flop and then leading a river, if they plan to give up their hand.

I think you can pick MUCH better spots to bluff raise a river, then in this situation.

[silkyslim]

you need to stop trying to trick your opponents and start letting them trick themselves. dont bluff this river anymore sir.