River...

krishanleong · #1 12-02-2005, 12:16 PM

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, CO calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, CO caps, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, BB calls, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, BB folds, CO caps, Hero calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, CO caps, Hero calls.

River: (18.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks his balls, they are small so he plans on calling.

Villian is 63/15/1.5 over 800.

Krishan

Spicymoose · #2 12-02-2005, 12:21 PM

Preflop looks like AA, KK, AK, AQ. 6, 6, 12, and 4 combos respectivly. I guess there are other possible holdings too, but not too many. Does AA and KK really go this nutso on the flop and turn? AK certainly doesn't. If he overplays is AA or KK like this 33% of the time, then he is equally likely for you to beat him or for him to be beating you, meaning you should check call. You need to be twice as good to try a bet/call. I think a check/call is the only option here.

kiddo · #3 12-02-2005, 12:37 PM

Limpcapping AQ makes no sense.

Capping anything but AQ on a QQxx board on flop and turn makes no sense.

Either way he is not a good player but I would checkcall river. He will have AQ, 66, Q6 or Q7 to often.

#4 12-02-2005, 01:00 PM

I dont think we can understand a player who is 63/15/1.5. He can have pretty much everything preflop and on the flop. But I think the cap on the turn means business(nut or air).

mscags · #5 12-02-2005, 01:07 PM

Looks good to me, I think I check call and throw up when I see AQ

Spicymoose · #6 12-02-2005, 01:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I dont think we can understand a player who is 63/15/1.5. He can have pretty much everything preflop and on the flop. But I think the cap on the turn means business(nut or air).

[/ QUOTE ]

Although it is much harder to read this player, we can still try. You can't just say he could have "pretty much everything preflop". Gotta at least try to do rough weighing...

AA or KK twice as often as everything else combined... 66 more often than QT... obviously we are not going to be exact here, but we can at least try to step inside the mentality of this player, and use those assumptions to see what may be correct. You are right that postflop gives us a much better indication of his hand than preflop, but you still have to weigh in the preflop factors.

#7 12-02-2005, 01:39 PM

He either played 66 brilliantly or AA retardedly. AQ/KQ are possible.

Very close river decision. I think a check/call is in order.

Spicymoose · #8 12-02-2005, 01:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He either played 66 brilliantly or AA retardedly.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think not. The brillaint part that is.

tolbiny · #9 12-02-2005, 01:47 PM

Skimmed a few responses- as others have mentioned the limp/cap means nothing. Victor calls this guy "Random four bet dude". PP's are favorite hands for them to do this with. so is 95o, what ever you know knowthing preflop.
As far as the flop and turn, its heads up, no overlay from osmeone else, i usually slo down after he raises the turn. 66 is what his hand looks like to me, either that or air. Let him bluff. If you've played with him a lot and he will way over play QT like this here then i am much more in favor of the three bet, with no read that he goes overly nutso i just call down.

Secondly, what do you think about calling the flop raise and donking the turn if hes aggro (1.5 ag with 65 vpip looks like). You aften have BB drawing thin to dead and can pick up another 1.5 BB's from him.

tolbiny · #10 12-02-2005, 01:49 PM

"but you still have to weigh in the preflop factors."

The limp cap means nothing. trying to weigh this action (barring severl previous specific instances) means nothing. His post flop action should be suffice to tell you that you are most likely beat, but in a huge pot there is more than enough chance of noting/worse queen to call this river bet.