First to Act Post Flop - Counting outs

[YoureToast]

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Dude!
if you had only told us all the relevant info from the beginning! at least now you know what you are actually asking.

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I wanted people to think about it without going into too much detail as to my thought process. I wanted responses like yours. I wanted to engage a discussion rather than spout out all the details of my thought process and watch this thread disappear. I used the Socratic method of discussion. You were one of few that thought about my statement and responded.

By the way, you criticized me for not mentioning that this statement is really only relevant in a HU or 3-handed situation; this should be relatively self-evident and in an earlier post, you alluded to this (when there are 3 or more players to act behind you, the chance that they all fold to a single bet on the flop is almost 0 most of the time.) Therefore, I did not feel I needed to mention it at the time. You came to that conclusion indirectly on your own, but you seem to have forgotten your own analysis.

My tactics may not have been perfect, but my guess is is that my original statement is probably correct as no one as been able to prove it wrong.

[theRealMacoy]

toast,

i certainly enjoyed this discussion.
my criticisms came mostly out of a frustration that you had specifics in mind that you hadn't made clear until after someone offered information. additionally, i appreciate endeavors to approach problems in new and unexplored means.

finally, given your specific example: i don't think that on a weak draw like this gut-shot you will get paid off enough to warrant this kind of play. IMO in the long run it will be a -EV play. also, given that both opponents raised preflop it seems unlikely they would both fold with a board such as this. perhaps if a low pair came up with another low, disconected card an early position raise could have a better chance for a successful bluff. in the end there are so many factors that come into considering whether your opponents are likely to fold.

cheers,
the real macoy