WA/WB, bet the river?

[scotty34]

I suppose it depends on exactly how LAG villain is. Someone run a PokerStove sim with 55 on that board vs top 20%, 30% 40% etc. of hands. This is probably a reasonable sim, as villain will basically always continuation bet the flop here, so we don't have to discount for that. Yea, he might be getting decent odds to call on the flop, but a turn call would be clearly incorrect for most of his hands that are behind us (which he will make most of the time).

[Redd]

I usually complete small pockets after one limper in with a few to act, as long as I know they're poor players.

BTW to the OP: I wouldn't call this WA/WB but if you trust you're read I like c/c,c/c,c/c. I'd change seats ASAP tho.

[Redeye]

[ QUOTE ]
C/r the flop, put some pressure on the villian, don't let him dictate how the hand goes.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a pretty wide range I used, about the top 30%ish of hands. I think our equity here is usually below our fair share, even though the LAG has a wide range. If you c/r, you are probably losing money, you aren't going to push the LAG off of many of these hands. He certainly isn't folding most straight draws, even the gutshots before showdown, and obviously not a flush draw. It give him the option to 3-bet, which if he has a bigger pair, flush draw, OESD, overs+gutshot gives him an equity advantage and we a losing even more money in a relatively small pot.

I also think that if you look at the 6-out type hands he could have, you just don't gain much by getting him to fold before the river with the pot this small.

I personally don't like the flop c/r, maybe the turn, but it puts you in a tough spot when c/red and now the pot is big enough that you can't afford to make a bad laydown when you really probably should fold to a 3-bet.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

345,510 games 0.171 secs 2,020,526 games/sec

Board: Th 2c Jh
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 60.6438 % 60.51% 00.14% { 55+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A5o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 2: 39.3562 % 39.22% 00.14% { 5h5s }


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