AQs, lots of outs on turn but trapped between two raisers

#1 12-22-2005, 07:47 PM

Any better way to play this?
No read on UTG, BB is (24/16/3) but only 100 hands.

PokerStars 10/20 Hold'em (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero raises, 3 folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, UTG raises, Hero calls, BB 3-bets, UTG caps, Hero calls, BB calls.

Catt · #2 12-22-2005, 08:25 PM

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that one of the two has a 9 in hand a huge % of the time when the turn goes bet-raise after the flop action on that board, so I'm not giving your overcard outs much play here (and if neither has a 9, someone has 2-pair or a set). That means we have likely 4 Ks (slim chance that a K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is no good) and 4 9 outs (same slim chance). However, if we assume that one 9 is already out, then we have ~7 outs. There is a small chance that the 9 outs are to a split. All in all, you could take the conservative view that you have somewhere between 6 and 7 outs, and it comes to you 10.75 : 2 which is not enough. The prospect of it getting 3-bet and capped behind makes the odds even worse.

Tough to make this laydown as UTG is unknown and could be getting really goofy and we don't know how much BB really likes his hand until he three-bets the turn (after our decision point obviously). However, looking at it in the calm light of the forum, I think you have a strong case to lay down to the turn the first time it comes to you.

#3 12-22-2005, 10:35 PM

If your opponent is poor the implied odds on your K are pretty monstrous. I'd call here, I'm not expecting BB to have the 9, like, ever, and I don't expect him to re-raise with less than a 9. If BB was some random floater on the flop who donked the turn I'd fold without a second thought. There's also no way I'm raising the flop against that guy, either.

#4 12-22-2005, 11:03 PM

Yeah, that sucks. Keep in mind that one or both has a 9. Also, one may well be free-rolling a flush draw, which taints one of your K outs. Or maybe one has KsQs. But the pot is huge, so even 3 clean outs makes this a call, and you have at least three, and maybe even as many as 6.

Catt · #5 12-22-2005, 11:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If your opponent is poor the implied odds on your K are pretty monstrous. I'd call here, I'm not expecting BB to have the 9, like, ever, and I don't expect him to re-raise with less than a 9. If BB was some random floater on the flop who donked the turn I'd fold without a second thought. There's also no way I'm raising the flop against that guy, either.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's close, and I wouldn't say calling was playing poorly at all. But I don't think the implied odds are monstrous. You're three-handed with one street to play, the last known aggressor (when you call the turn raise) is to your right and there's a seemingly solid player on your left who you'll be facing with two cold and you were the PFR that raised the flop and then CC'd the turn. The flop contained a FD and if the K of flush hits that's going to freeze up the river action when you CC turn and come alive on the river. Even without the flush card hitting, the board will be 78TJK. I'm not sure you're collecting a capped or three-bet river, and I'm pretty sure you're not if a 9 falls (if you do, you're chopping or UTG is a complete idiot). If UTG is a complete idiot, then the turn call becomes easier, IMHO, because he could be doing stupid stuff on the turn and if BB doesn't have a 9 then you're likely to see the river for two bets.