Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff

[ahnuld]

I dont bother playing JT offsuit, and I squeeze play ppl who open with it like you alot. Maybe I was at your table today? What is villans sn?

[Marlow]

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Calling that raise and folding to his (expected) flop push is not a good line with any holding (in my opinion).

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I never take this line, and would certainly never advocate for it.

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If anything, your reraise looks even weaker (than a call would) as it looks like you are trying to push the third guy out and go headsup with the short stack.

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I don't think SB's coming along for the extra $43, and neither does BB or he'd never raise (without big cards). SB's 12 is almost guaranteed dead money.

[Marlow]

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I dont bother playing JT offsuit, and I squeeze play ppl who open with it like you alot. Maybe I was at your table today? What is villans sn?

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I don't open with it a lot.

It was last night on Prima. If you really think you were BB, PM me.

[Marlow]

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I think that this is the crux of the debate here. It's all about our Fold Equity.

What do all y'all think our FE is here?

Given the number you post, when is our minimum holding in order to make the play profitable?

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I used you're stellar reads to come up with FE of 50%. Nobody seems to agree with me though [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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I certainly appreciate your backing my initial (if perhaps poorly calculated) read with the math. I ballparked the numbers and thought I was Ok. To be honest, though, if I thought I only had an $11 expectation (yep, I overestimated FE by A LOT), I'd have probably folded. The play has too much varience for my comfort level.

[Wayfare]

Post deleted by Wayfare

[Wayfare]

You know why all aggies have flat heads and broad shoulders?


Because when you ask them a question they do this:






and then when you tell them the answer they do this:

You bet $12
he raises to $55 ( and you have a hunch he's tryin to squeeze you out of your twelve.)
So, you put in another $43 to call plus $130 which is his stack size u say = $173 more into pot???
And you do this to "defend your $12" ??? Have I got this right???
How often do you have to be right here, just to break even???
to defend $12, you put in 14 times that much, "because you like your read here" .
Look at your hand. You have JT o.
Even villains get hands.

You asked me what is the worst I put him on. IMO I think your question entirely misses the point.

[aggie]

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You bet $12
he raises to $55 ( and you have a hunch he's tryin to squeeze you out of your twelve.)
So, you put in another $43 to call plus $130 which is his stack size u say = $173 more into pot???
And you do this to "defend your $12" ??? Have I got this right???
How often do you have to be right here, just to break even???
to defend $12, you put in 14 times that much, "because you like your read here" .
Look at your hand. You have JT o.
Even villains get hands.

You asked me what is the worst I put him on. IMO I think your question entirely misses the point.

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I think you're missing the point. It doesn't matter what hero has. He's bluffing. While it's true villians get hands they don't always get hands.

PS. Wayfare, i didn't get it. But maybe that's because i'm a dumb'ol Aggie. WHOOP!!!!

i tell ya what marlow.. unlike many people on here.. you provided great information as to the reads on the players, your reasoning and your reads.. i like where your head is going at in the first place. SO with that said.. i like your reasoning but me personally.. i like to move in with a little better of a hand than J-10.. only because you may have live cards at best. i'd rather move in w/ a hand like 7-8 suited.. because you're almost positive you have a live hand.. but i really really like your reasoning and everythign you've provided here besides the usual hand converter from an online hand.. you have a bright future.

[mythrilfox]

you get called here like 90% of the time in my experience... this is good higher level thinking but here it's just fps/spewage. what hands has he played in the past that would lead you to believe this is a squeeze play? to me it just seems like you're building up this guy to be a master shortstack specialist to try and justify the play. has he even re-raised preflop yet at all? most shortstacks are just taking a shot and looking for a few big hands rather than having a very specific and intricate shortstack strategy laid out...

as regards the ev... if he raises to 55 and you both fold 100% of the time then he has an EV of +$24 - that positive expectation HAD to come from somewhere, it is the law of conservation of EV. 12 from you, 12 from your buddy. technically folding is 0EV but folding renders the previous raise -EV. I think.

btw what are results?