Learning to think on the fly -- a test

[Godfather80]

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Game is 10-20 NL, 4 handed. Villain in the BB has $2600. You have him covered.

Preflop

Folded to you in the SB. You make it $75 to go in the SB with K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Villain calls.

Flop

K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Scenario 2

Villain is a weak, but not wild, player. He calls and folds too much on all streets, and does not raise frequently enough. He is not tricky.

Assume you bet the pot on the flop and Villain calls.

Pot size is now $480. You each have $2360 behind. Turn card is 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Now what? One thing to consider is whether this card is a brick.

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When the Villain in Scenario 2 calls my flop bet, I am not surprised. From our read, I expect him to call with a wide range of hands including any pairs and any draws.

The 3 on the turn is a scary card against this Villain because it could have helped quite a few of his potential holdings. But, we still must lead out because the majority of his hand range was NOT helped by the 3 and is either still drawing to a straight or flush; or just "improved" to 2 pair.

Therefore, against Scenario 2 Villain, Hero should lead the turn for $400.

If this Villain raises our turn bet, we should give him credit for holding trip 3s and act accordingly.

[Godfather80]

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Assume you bet the pot on the flop and Villain calls.

Pot size is now $480. You each have $2360 behind. Turn card is 3 . Now what? One thing to consider is whether this card is a brick.

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obviously 10/20 is out of my league, but top 2 when you're four handed in a blind war is an absolute monster. The turn doesn't change that in my mind at all. The only things you're behind are a set (unlikely, that puts all 4 10s or Ks out there), quads (again unlikely), AA, or A3. #2 or #3 certainly could have A3, but i think they have weaker hands enough to take your chances here. In most cases i'm willing to play for my stack.

Scenario 1: good player thinks his top pair is good. I don't want to change his mind, bet 3/4 pot with a river plan of betting 1/2 pot and calling a push.

Scenario 2: weak player just called flop, which he's prone to do with both strong and marginal holdings. We are ahead the large majority of the time here, so bet out again... he'll most likely call with worse hands and call with better hands. Again 3/4 pot, and again 1/2 pot on the river but fold to a push.

scenario 3: i want to give this guy the opportunity to sense weakness and try to push me off the pot. 2/3 pot on the turn and a blocking bet on the river, calling a river push.

If raised on the turn by #2 im folding, by #3 i'm calling and check calling any river bet. if #1 raises the turn i'm not real sure what i'd do.... probably the same as #3.

Godfather: i really like your flop lines

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Donkey,

Thanks. I love thought experiments like these because they force me to consider the reasoning behind every move I make. It lets me examine my own weaknesses and holes in my thinking.

[Godfather80]

[ QUOTE ]
Game is 10-20 NL, 4 handed. Villain in the BB has $2600. You have him covered.

Preflop

Folded to you in the SB. You make it $75 to go in the SB with K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Villain calls.

Flop

K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Scenario 3

Villain is a big LAG. He has more guts than judgment. He plays too many hands. He bluffs too often and in bad spots, but he is good at picking off bluffs by opponents. He is capable of folding if he feels he is beat, but he is also capable of betting/raising all-in with the nuts, air, or something in between. He can be tricky at times and is difficult to put on a hand.

Assume you bet the pot on the flop and Villain calls.

Pot size is now $480. You each have $2360 behind. Turn card is 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Now what? One thing to consider is whether this card is a brick.

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Our turn action against Scenario 3 Villain is the most interesting to me. Here's why: it is possible that this Villain holds a 3 in his hand, giving him a near lock against us (we have 4 outs); but, it is also possible that this Villain will try to represent having a 3 in his hand a decent portion of the time.

Against a player like the Scenario 3 Villain, top two pair is a great hand that I am willing to play for my stack. I think the 3 on the turn makes us (due to Villain's propensity for bluffing) as often as it breaks us.

Although I'd really enjoy making a weak turn lead and hoping to get raised, I cannot advocate this line because Villain may have a real draw that we would be pricing in with a weak (1/3-1/2 pot) lead.

Therefore, against Scenario 3 Villain, I lead the turn for $400.

If raised on the turn by Scenario 3 Villain, I happily push for the rest of my chips because they're going in anyway and I'd rather have them in when I'm probably ahead.

[Siingo]

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For opponent one, if we know that he is an aggressive thinking player than a raise does not necessarily mean we are beat. I think that if a tight player raises in a situation like this then he very well might be trying to do some sort of free card raise with a flush or straight draw. Also, if we always auto bet the flop after raising pre flop then he might just be trying to put a move on us. I think that many players with a hand like KK or 1010 would have re-raised us PF so I'm not all that worried about a set (wrong perhaps?) Against a player like this, I think a re-raise all in would be good to prevent him from getting a free turn. Like I said before, I think a raise by a thinking player in a situation like this is more likely to indicate some sort of draw rather than something like a set.


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Cant rerais indicate "I hit something like topp pair and you probably only bluff". Then all-in mean he will fold every hand you beat and only call with hands that beat you?

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Scenario 1

Villain is generally tight preflop. He tends to reach a "decision point" early in hands and does not fold a made hand very often on the turn or the river unless the board is very scary. He is generally sensitive to pot odds, etc. He is capable of bluffing and playing aggressively if he senses weakness. He is a winning player.

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No idea what kind of hand Villain has - I am seen as aggressive - so thinking player might put me on some kind of steal here - I am OOP - but have hit a great flop.
options
1) check - I have likely the best hand now - if I check it has to be to checkraise - so if Villain checks behind its a disaster - giving hm possibly a free card to a diamond flush or a straight.

ii) bet - this gets money in the pot and as I'm sure I'm ahead I need to bet. this also gives me info as to the strength of Villains hand if he calls..

iii) fold - er no.

I have to bet here so I am going for a PSB. If Villain has nothing I take the pot now - if he calls then I can start narrowing down his hand range. If he reraises I'd call and reevaluate the turn.


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Scenario 2

Villain is a weak, but not wild, player. He calls and folds too much on all streets, and does not raise frequently enough. He is not tricky.


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I'm favouring a half pot raise here - figuring that a PSB will usually fold this player and I want more of his money in the pot. Will call any reraise barring a push and reevaluate on the turn.


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Scenario 3

Villain is a big LAG. He has more guts than judgment. He plays too many hands. He bluffs too often and in bad spots, but he is good at picking off bluffs by opponents. He is capable of folding if he feels he is beat, but he is also capable of betting/raising all-in with the nuts, air, or something in between. He can be tricky at times and is difficult to put on a hand.


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check/raise. Villain is almost certain to bet on this flop given his image and can hold any 2. I'd like to see a PSB from him after I check which I plan on raising to ~1/3 of his stack. push a friendly turn if called c/c scary cards

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Assume you bet the pot on the flop and Villain calls.

Pot size is now $480. You each have $2360 behind. Turn card is 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Now what? One thing to consider is whether this card is a brick.

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its a brick.

if villain holds 33 we are toast - as 2 3's are on board now that is so unlikely we can dismiss it as a possibility. If it happens thats poker.

that leaves A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and I am guessing that would have raised the flop for #1 or #3 and #2 wouldn't have chased the flush for a PSB.

I lead here for ~1/3 pot to see what action develops, Checking is no good as it allows Villain again to check behind for a free card and he's still most likely drawing.

Villain 3 is the most likely to hold a 3 - tho even if he does I still have draws to a fh so will push any raise.

for 1& 2 I call any raise and see the river.

I want my opponents to try and draw out. hence the 1/3rd ishbet it is most likely if they do draw that they will miss. - if they miss I win a bigger pot. I also want to bet just enough so that if they call and chase the draw they aren't getting quite enough odds and are making a small mistake. lets say $180

I am ahead of Kx (not K3) AK - any 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I am behind K3 T3 AA 33

I can't see that AA or 33 would generate this action on this board from any of the 3 players - that leaves 2 hands I am behind.

then pray that the laws of probability hold up and the river is a brick - I'm scared of Aces and diamonds tho I am not sure I can a fold if one shows up...

[Rococo]

This thread seems to have come back to life, so I am going to hold off on posting my thoughts for a bit.

[Siingo]

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This thread seems to have come back to life, so I am going to hold off on posting my thoughts for a bit.

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Lol... One post in the last 16h. I´m not sure if it has "come back to life" or just die slowly! Well I guess I have to wait a bit longer on your comments then....

[DoomSlice]

In scenario 1 I was planning on check/calling on the turn/river if no diamond comes and LEAD if a diamond comes.

In scenario 2 I think I continue to pound the pot.

In scenario 3 I check-raise this card, call an all in, lead for pot if its checked behind if the river blanks. Check-call if a diamond drops.

[Godfather80]

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This thread seems to have come back to life, so I am going to hold off on posting my thoughts for a bit.

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I'd say it's about time for you to post your thoughts. There have been quite a few views, but not a huge amount of replies. People are curious to know your opinion so we can discuss it.