Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > General Gambling > Probability

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 11-30-2005, 01:23 PM
mike3076 mike3076 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 85
Default J10s favored over pocket pair???

i was always under the impression that a pocket pair was favored over two high cards before flop. to my suprise 910s is favored over 22-66 and J10s is favored over 22-77.
can any one explain why this is? in fact 45s is a fav over pocket 3-3 pre-flop.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 11-30-2005, 03:14 PM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: J10s favored over pocket pair???

Not sure hot to explain why...its just how the odds work :P The amount of straight and flush draws possible increases the odds.

910s is favored over 22-55 at a similar rate, and then at 66+ the odds decrease more, because you are removing outs that would complete a straight for 910. Same thing with J10s...this is also why 22-77 are less likely to win, and 88 is more likely, because it eliminates more straight possibilities.

This is also why J10s is favoured more heavily over an underpair than AKs is...there are more straight possibilities.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 11-30-2005, 03:27 PM
Tom1975 Tom1975 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 132
Default Re: J10s favored over pocket pair???

Easy, the suited connectors can win by making a straight, flush, higher pair, or by counterfeiting the low pp if two higher pair hit the board. Add up all these possibilites and it makes them a slight favorite.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 11-30-2005, 06:07 PM
mike3076 mike3076 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 85
Default Re: J10s favored over pocket pair???

thank you. thats what i thought , but was still suprised.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 12-01-2005, 10:59 AM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: J10s favored over pocket pair???

It depends a lot on how many players are in the pot. If you're heads up, pocket pairs are great. If you're at a full table (and I think your hand rankings are for a full table) you need to have a powerful hand at the end to beat all the others and suited connectors are good at ending up as powerful hands when they make flushes and straights.

A pair of threes lose a lot in a multiway pot unless you get a set.

I've done some simulations of 10-way pots (everybody at a full table stays in to the river). 33 is at the middle of the field there. JTs is hand no. 15 so it wins a lot more.

If you do the same for 2-way pots, 33 is hand no. 12 and JTs is no. 17 so a pair of threes is the better hand heads-up.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 12-01-2005, 11:02 AM
AngryCola AngryCola is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Wichita
Posts: 999
Default Re: J10s favored over pocket pair???

[ QUOTE ]

If you do the same for 2-way pots, 33 is hand no. 12 and JTs is no. 17 so a pair of threes is the better hand heads-up.

[/ QUOTE ]

As the OP said, JTs is a favorite over 33.

Plus, JTs is the easier hand to play heads-up, IMO.

EDIT-

I don't think I completely understood your post when I made mine. But JTs is still the easier of the two hands to play heads-up, IMO. Also, simulations like the ones you have been running aren't very useful.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 12-01-2005, 11:16 AM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: J10s favored over pocket pair???

Yes. When 33 goes agains JTs, JTs is the favorite.

But 33 wins more against a random hand than JTs does. So you should prefer that heads-up.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 12-01-2005, 11:25 AM
AngryCola AngryCola is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Wichita
Posts: 999
Default Re: J10s favored over pocket pair???

[ QUOTE ]


But 33 wins more against a random hand than JTs does. So you should prefer that heads-up.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you get from A to B here? Random hands aren't what people play, and pots aren't taken to the river a good percentage of the time. As I said in my last edit, I misunderstood your first post, but this one I completely understand. It is wrong.

You should prefer the hand that is most profitable for you, and that calculation must include a number of different factors. Generally one of the least important factors to consider is which hand is favored against a random hand. Still, if you are in the blinds heads-up, random hands do become more important.

In most heads-up pots, I'll take JTs over 33. You are almost always in a much trickier situation when you play 33 heads-up, and that leads to mistakes. Mistakes cost money.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:20 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.