Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play

[B Dids]

Party 5/10

Fishy limps UTG he was the 43/5 type...

I raise K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] next to act.

Solidish if slightly passive preflop player (~25/11) 3 bets me.

Loose passive OTB calls three cold.

Blinds fold, UTG calls, I call.

Flop K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

UTG checks, I check, Preflop raiser bets, button calls, UTG calls, I raise, they call call.

Turn 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Checked to me, I bet, pfr folds, button and UTG call.

River 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

UTG bets out, what's my move here?

UTG could have a 4, but he sure doesn't have to. The button is a calling station and he could easily overcall if I decline to raise. There's a slimmer change he'd call two cold anyway. Your thoughts?

[SomethingClever]

I'd go for the overcall.

[peterchi]

I'd hate to get 3-bet here. I'd also hate to lose button's call with a raise.

If we call, we win 2 or lose 1. I'd much prefer this over taking a chance at winning 4 but maybe losing 3.

[imported_leader]

I'd raise. BT likes calling so give him the chance to CC two more. I just don't believe UTG at all so I'd make sure I got another bet out of what ever he has.

[kidcolin]

The only 4 I could ever see being played this way is Xs4s, but the 4s is out, or maybe a funky two-pair, who you'd usually hear from on the turn. He might be a wuss due to the flush draw, but then he'd probably c/r the river.

I say raise. If button calls 3-cold preflop, he'll likely call 2-cold with most pairs on the river in a big pot. Getting 3-bet stinks, but hey, so does shaving.

[Alobar]

raise. button will call the 2 bets cuz he cant stand to lose with his JJ, and UTG is a moron who will still call with whatever hand he decided he would outplay everyone on the river with by betting.

I just go for overcalls. UTG waking up on the river means one of five things: 1) He has a king and figures the river counterfeited a lower two pair of yours. 2) A fourth flush card didn't come so now he's value-betting a random hand (pocket pair, a king, etc etc). 3) He's trying to represent a four on a pure bluff or semi bluff. 4) He actually has a four. 5) He has the world's worst-played baby flush but doesn't want to try for a check raise and wimped out on the turn.

He's only calling your raise here if he's on a king, some random pair, a four or a baby flush. I don't really know if we're ahead 55 % of the time that he calls - and even if we are, it seems the button will overcall a lot more often if we don't raise it.

[TheMetetron]

Raise.

[Buckmulligan]

I like the overcall.

[TheMetetron]

[ QUOTE ]
I like the overcall.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, time for me to school some folks.

News flash: He just about never has a 4 here. Your hand is good >90% of the time IMO.

I want to get in more than 1 more bet. He's not bet/folding because he's not that smart. Button has a propensity to call, I want him to call 2 cold some % of the time. I also want the donk to bluff 3-bet sometimes, or 3-bet his weaker hand like an idiot.

Combine all these factors and you can earn more by raising. The overcall isn't guarantee and has a value of less than one BB. The raise is worth more than 1 BB.

Simple enough?