AA in a marginal river situation

[private joker]

Decent 9/18 game. I just table-changed 20 minutes ago, so no great reads on anyone. But the BB in this hand hasn't been in a pot since I sat down, so I'm thinking he's fairly tight.

I get two red aces UTG and raise. Button cold-calls. He appears to be a standard loose-passive chasing fish. SB folds, BB calls.

Flop comes K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB weak-leads. I raise, button cold-calls, BB calls.

Turn is Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB checks, I bet, button calls, BB calls.

River is 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

BB bets and I really want to raise. Button isn't giving off much of a tell for whether or not he likes the river and/or is going to fold. Who calls, and who raises? (Also, who folds and if so, what's your screen name on Party, etc.)

[flawless_victory]

every1 raises.

[pokerjunky]

I like going for an overcall here. The fish on your right may like to chase but that doesn't mean he'll call two cold here with less than top pair. Although you're probably still ahead here, you have to be ahead of BB more than 50% of the time if the button folds to make a raise profitable. There's also two other scenarios that would suck:

1. You get 3 bet

2. You knock out the button and the BB also folds.

Just curious, where do they play 9/18? I have never seen that before. Seems like it would be a pain handling the extra chips for only a $1/2 difference.

[stigmata]

I would raise this HU on the river.

However, here I go for the overcall. The calling station button cold-called two on the flop, so he either has a pair or flush draw. When the flush comes on the turn and he doesn't raise, we have to assume he has a pair which he is calling down with.

On the river, if we raise, button will likely fold and we will gain an extra bet when ahead, or lose 2 extra bets when behind (if we call a 3-bet).

If we call, we will likely gain extra 1 bet when ahead, and lose one when behind.

[belloc]

[ QUOTE ]
Just curious, where do they play 9/18? I have never seen that before. Seems like it would be a pain handling the extra chips for only a $1/2 difference.

[/ QUOTE ]

Most Southern Cal. cardrooms spread 3/6 and 2/4 chip structure games. The extra chips make pots look bigger and induce loose play. The 3/6 and 4/8 are played with $1 chips, 6/12 and 8/16 (where available) with $2 chips, 9/18 with $3 chips, 15/30 and 20/40 with $5 chips. I'm not sure any LA cardrooms are spreading a regular 10/20 anymore.

I raise here, this is my thinking...

the bb has K rag, and think the 2 on the river gave him 2 pair with the Q kicker which in his opinion is good enough to at least split the pot, even better would be if he has KQ....

I don't think mp has the flush b/c he would have raised your turn bet in order to push out the possible higher flush on the redraw since we know he doesn't have the nut flush b/c you are holding the Ah... and I don't think any fish is folding a K with the 2 on the river here....

if you get 3 bet then it's tough, you're probably behind, but given the size of the pot and depending on who 3 bet, it may warrant a call, but the 2c certainly didn't help the button who hadn't played a hand since you sat down (unless he just made quads that he very poorly misplayed)

[onegymrat]

Hi Joker,

You're probably screwed, but you have to call. Even with this type of weak lineup, you will not often run into a river bet into two players without a hand that beats you. This is either a complete bluff, or he made it with K2 or something similar.

Another probability, but less likely, may be a made flush and he bet after NOT seeing a fourth heart. A good reason for not raising (even if you are strongly certain that you're ahead), as another poster already mentioned, is that you may knock out both. Let button overcall with his king. Good luck with this one.

[mscags]

I think going for an overcall is best here. I really don't want to get three bet here by any means and the bettor may fold to your raise anyway so I like an overcall

It's impossible for him to be ahead here without a deuce. He doesn't have a set. He doesn't have a flush. Even a deuce seems odd with him donking the flop. Unless you have a really strong read that tells you that he wouldn't donk the river if he didn't have you beat you've got to jam that raise in.