2-4 Party JJ hand

[Shillx]

The idea behind my reasoning is that he will be betting the flop with all his hands. After he bets the turn, the odds that we are still good go way down. Let's say that the villian will only cap AA-QQ and AK in this spot. After he bets the flop, he could have any of these hands. But after he bets the turn, you can throw AK out the window and we should fold.

Brad

[Michael Davis]

Hero could have TT, AKc, AKs.

-Michael

[mikeyvegas]

[ QUOTE ]
But after he bets the turn, you can throw AK out the window and we should fold.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldnt throw out AK spades or clubs(and 1010)...

edit: Michael beat me to it...

[Shillx]

Calling the turn is really dependent on what he will cap with. I have no idea what he will cap with (calling the turn makes no sense against someone who will only cap AA for example) so it is hard to say, but if you include TT you have to call all the way should the river brick out. I was trying to make the point that the turn raise makes little sense (not just in the context of this hand but in general).

Brad

[mikeyvegas]

[ QUOTE ]
Calling the turn is really dependent on what he will cap with. I have no idea what he will cap with (calling the turn makes no sense against someone who will only cap AA for example) so it is hard to say, but if you include TT you have to call all the way should the river brick out. I was trying to make the point that the turn raise makes little sense (not just in the context of this hand but in general).

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

One of the reasons I raised the turn instead of the flop was the presence of the 2 players drawing between UTG+1 and myself. I basically was looking to make them pay the most to see the river. I'm not sure if this is flawed thinking though.

[Michael Davis]

The problem I have with the wait till the turn plan is that if UTG fires again on the turn, you are in trouble.

That being said, it's entirely possible you will be able to raise someone else's bet. And there is going to be a pretty big equity shift between the flop and turn if your Js are the best hand, so I don't mind this play at all. But once UTG fires into three others on the turn, I definitely just calldown.

-Michael

[mikeyvegas]

[ QUOTE ]
That being said, it's entirely possible you will be able to raise someone else's bet. And there is going to be a pretty big equity shift between the flop and turn if your Js are the best hand, so I don't mind this play at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was my exact thinking on the flop. I think I may have misapplyed Ed's overpair example in SSHE here because of the action that went down pre-flop.


[ QUOTE ]
But once UTG fires into three others on the turn, I definitely just calldown.

-Michael

[/ QUOTE ]

My plan was to raise the turn, and fold to a 3-bet. If only called I would take a free showdown unimproved or fold to a bet if a scare card fell. I didn't want to call the river bet, but since it was heads up in a 20 BB pot I caved. I was then shown AA.

[chief444]

I just call the flop here as well mainly to see if UTG+1 leads again or checks the turn. Plus even though it seems you have no way to protect your hand if it is good right now that may change on the turn. If it is good UTG+1 will often check the turn and you may get a chance to raise a bet from one of the opponents in between.

When UTG+1 leads the turn, as has been said already, you're likely behind. Assuming AKs, AKc, or TT are the only hands you're ahead of...and for arguments sake lets say there's a 50% chance TT caps preflop...then you're behind 18 combinations of QQ-AA and ahead of 5 combinations (only counting half of the six for TT). So there's about a 20% chance you're ahead (5/23). But even this is high because there are times that UTG+2 or MP3 holds the best hand and is just afraid to raise. Plus I'd say the 20% chance alone that you have UTG+1 beat is probably on the high side. So I'd say your JJ may be good in reality 10-15% of the time here. I would guess you're looking at at least one flush draw plus a couple of overcards and maybe even one opponent with a pair so there are probably 15-20 river cards that will nulify your jacks. So say 40% of the time that you are good you'll be drawn out on anyway.

So that means you're winning this pot about 40% of 15% or 6% of the time. 4% of the time you'll catch a J as well so maybe closer to 10%. So I'd say it's enough to call down but I really can't argue with anyone saying to fold either.

The truth is I really don't mind the turn raise that much but only if it's the last bet you put in. It's obviously the correct play those times your hand is good and it only costs you 2 BB's when it's not. So I'd say the turn is pretty close between fold/call/raise. But without a read on UTG+1 I really couldn't fold this river either so I think call/call is best.

Interesting hand.

[chief444]

[ QUOTE ]
You can't protect your hand on the turn in this spot -- your position to the aggressor allows everyone to call before you raise. You're trapping them, not forcing them out. I like a flop raise because you can force them out if the aggressor 3-bets. If he just calls, you can take the lead in the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
If he 3-bets you're likely in trouble.

[colgin]

I don't see the point in raising this hand at any point post-flop and raising the turn is particularly bad IMO. At least with a flop raise if villain reraises and leads the turn you can safely fold if you haven't spiked your jack.

Against many players you can safely fold the turn if you haven't improved and villain leads out again. But against a total unknown you think he may be overplaying a hand like AKs or TT. Fine. So call it down. But you will be behind here often and you want the other players between you and villain hanging around for those (many) times that you are, in fact, drawing. There are not many hands you would like them to fold that beat the hand you are trying to make (one example would be QTo) other than ones they simply will not fold (i.e., a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] flush draw).