Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > Tournament Poker > Multi-table Tournaments

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 12-29-2005, 03:21 PM
pkrPlayerBr pkrPlayerBr is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 47
Default $10 MTT Party Poker 1st Hand - Right Call?

This is the first hand of a $10 multitable tourney with over 800 players.

I am in the CO seat. MP+1 pushes all-in 1000. I have no reads and have KK. I called and he showed AA. I couldn't spike anything and I was out.

I think the better line here is to fold. I was trying to determine if the play is +EV, but I don't know how to do the math, and I would like someone's help.

Let's say that 10% of the times he has AA, 30% AKs, 20% AXs and 40% PP below KK.

The blinds are 10/15 and he pushed 1000.

Can anyone tell me if the call is mathematically correct based on my assumptions, and explain to me how to make the calculations?

Thank you in advance.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 12-29-2005, 03:31 PM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: $10 MTT Party Poker 1st Hand - Right Call?

Folding KK before the flop is acceptable only when you are on the bubble of a satellite and virtually guaranteed a seat by folding. On the first hand of a $10 tournament, I am calling and expecting to see all kinds of garbage besides AA.

I can tell you off the top of my head that you are ahead of the range you gave for Villain, but the way to do the calculation is to use pokerstove or a similar calculator to determine your equity against each of these hands, then multiply each result by the percent of the time you expect Villain to have each of these hands. Sum the totals, and you'll have the EV of the call.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 12-29-2005, 03:31 PM
Pondy Pondy is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 79
Default Re: $10 MTT Party Poker 1st Hand - Right Call?

Correct call, u ran into AA.

next tourney...
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 12-29-2005, 03:33 PM
pkrPlayerBr pkrPlayerBr is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 47
Default Re: $10 MTT Party Poker 1st Hand - Right Call?

Thank you.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 12-29-2005, 03:34 PM
Art Vandelay Art Vandelay is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 121
Default Re: $10 MTT Party Poker 1st Hand - Right Call?

If you had folded KK in this spot it would have been criminal. Tough break, move on.

The real donk in this hand is the villian, he makes this move and only KK and QQ will probably call him. The vast majority of the time he picks up the blinds for a whopping win of T15 for his AA. Idiot.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 12-29-2005, 03:39 PM
PFrese PFrese is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 25
Default Re: $10 MTT Party Poker 1st Hand - Right Call?

[ QUOTE ]
If you had folded KK in this spot it would have been criminal. Tough break, move on.

The real donk in this hand is the villian, he makes this move and only KK and QQ will probably call him. The vast majority of the time he picks up the blinds for a whopping win of T15 for his AA. Idiot.

[/ QUOTE ]
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 12-29-2005, 03:41 PM
Rooger Rooger is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 75
Default Re: $10 MTT Party Poker 1st Hand - Right Call?

KK against:
AA - win 18.1%
AKs - win 65.9%
Axs - win 67.6%
QQ-22 - win 81.1%

You'll expect to win:
AA: (-1000 * 0.819) + (1000 * 0.181) = -638
AKs: (-1000 * 0.341) + (1000 * 0.659) = 318
Axs: (-1000 * 0.324) + (1000 * 0.676) = 352
QQ-22: (-1000 * 0.189) + (1000 * 0.811) = 622

With the percentages you gave, a call would give you an average of:

0.1 * -638 + 0.3 * 318 + 0.2 * 352 + 0.4 * 622 = 350.8 chips
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 12-29-2005, 03:43 PM
illegit illegit is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 217
Default Re: $10 MTT Party Poker 1st Hand - Right Call?

You really shouldn't need math to figure this one out, especially given the ranges you gave. Give him AA 80% of the time then maybe it might be worth looking at, but since you can never do that anyway it wouldn't be particularly relevant.



((0.8 * -1000) + (0.2 * +1025)) * 0.1 = -59.5
((0.66 * +1025) + (0.33 * -1000)) * 0.3 = +103.95
((0.67 * +1025) + (0.33 * -1000)) * 0.2 = +71.35
((0.8 * +1025) + (0.2 * -1000)) * 0.4 = +248

103.95 + 71.35 + 248 - 59.5 = +363.8

That is huge +cEV.

EDIT: Yeah, roger checked me. I used some rough numbers so his is probably more precise.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 12-29-2005, 03:46 PM
DVaut1 DVaut1 is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Ann Arbor, MI
Posts: 27
Default Re: $10 MTT Party Poker 1st Hand - Right Call?

[ QUOTE ]
If you had folded KK in this spot it would have been criminal. Tough break, move on.

The real donk in this hand is the villian, he makes this move and only KK and QQ will probably call him. The vast majority of the time he picks up the blinds for a whopping win of T15 for his AA. Idiot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not that I disagree about the Villain's donk play, but it's a $10 Party MTT -- you're getting called by alot more than KK and QQ. As Focault rightly points out, I'm actually surprised when Villain has AA there. I'd expect all kinds of garbage from the Villain, and I assume most players would put Villain on a wide range as well.

I wouldn't be surpised to see someone call Villain's all-in push on the first hand with 99+, AQ+ and possibly much worse.

There's a reason why a the low-limit MTT mantra is 'value bet, value bet, value bet'; there's no shortage of people in the early stages of a Party MTT unable to laydown a pocket pair/AQ/JTs preflop -- in other words, Villain's push with AA isn't THAT bad, IMO, because he's going to get called with just as much garbage as we expect the villain to be pushing with.

Or, in other words, there's little to no gap concept present in the early levels of a low-limit MTT.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 12-29-2005, 03:57 PM
davidross davidross is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Burlington, Ontario, Canada
Posts: 1,021
Default Re: $10 MTT Party Poker 1st Hand - Right Call?

"The real donk in this hand is the villian, he makes this move and only KK and QQ will probably call him. The vast majority of the time he picks up the blinds for a whopping win of T15 for his AA. Idiot."

THere is another side to this. Playing $100 Empire MTT's, I pushed 8 times with AA during level 1 and got called 7 times. For some reason people want to teach the "idiot" a lesson, and my aces held up all 7 times too [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].
Granted I never did it first in, but it has clearly been a +EV play for me.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:05 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions Inc.