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  #1  
Old 12-18-2005, 10:55 AM
cjs cjs is offline
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Default Pl 25 middle set

Is this too agressive with middle set.My read on the villian was loose agressive who was very aggresive postflop (52/17 with a post flop agression of 4)

Party Poker (7 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Total number of players : 9
Seat 2: hero ( $89.01 )
Seat 10: oldgray2004 ( $59.03 )
Seat 5: Gunn_Slinger ( $27.75 )
Seat 3: willydd ( $57.75 )
Seat 7: BadbeatPhil ( $40.95 )
Seat 1: Hollowace ( $23.90 )
Seat 8: UnipolarKC ( $60.22 )
Seat 4: Mc2bitz ( $25 )
Seat 6: Kurtovski ( $25 )
BadbeatPhil posts small blind [$0.10].
oldgray2004 posts big blind [$0.25].
Mc2bitz posts big blind [$0.25].

Hollowace calls [$0.25].
Armourofpeen has joined the table.
hero calls [$0.25].
willydd calls [$0.25].
Mc2bitz checks.
Gunn_Slinger calls [$0.25].
BadbeatPhil calls [$0.15].
oldgray2004 checks.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
BadbeatPhil checks.
oldgray2004 checks.
Hollowace checks.
hero bets [$1.70].
willydd folds.
Mc2bitz folds.
Gunn_Slinger folds.
BadbeatPhil raises [$6.80].
oldgray2004 folds.
Hollowace folds.
hero raises [$20.40].
BadbeatPhil: ok chief
BadbeatPhil is all-In.
hero calls [$18.60].
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  #2  
Old 12-18-2005, 07:10 PM
Burdzthewurd Burdzthewurd is offline
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Default Re: Pl 25 middle set

You're pwned to one out here, considering this is Phil we speak of
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  #3  
Old 12-18-2005, 08:27 PM
DrewOnTilt DrewOnTilt is offline
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Default Re: Pl 25 middle set

This board is draw-heavy, so in addition to a higher set you might well be up against a combination of straight wraps and flush draws. You do have a weak backdoor low draw, though.

I think the general consensus is that a better line with middle set is to wait for a safe turn card.

Keep in mind that I suck at this game.
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  #4  
Old 12-18-2005, 09:25 PM
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Default Re: Pl 25 middle set

Here's the thing with middle set in Omaha 8: you need your opponent to not have a top set most of the time. Because when you get all in with middle set against top set, you're practically dead, but when you get all in with middle set against say a flush draw, two pair or double draw, your opponent still has a decent amount of equity. This is especially true when there are low draws on the board (but not the case here).

The other thing I'll say is be careful with PT stats. I'm villain in this hand [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] and I'm actually a very tight player (25/2/2 range). PT stats can be VERY misleading if you don't have a lot of hands with the player.
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  #5  
Old 12-18-2005, 11:22 PM
kurto kurto is offline
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Default Re: Pl 25 middle set

I must be catching you on off nights because I see you playing quite laggy.

Particularly last night where I saw you raising hands like 36QK. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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  #6  
Old 12-19-2005, 01:39 AM
TGoldman TGoldman is offline
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Default Re: Pl 25 middle set

[ QUOTE ]
Here's the thing with middle set in Omaha 8: you need your opponent to not have a top set most of the time. Because when you get all in with middle set against top set, you're practically dead, but when you get all in with middle set against say a flush draw, two pair or double draw, your opponent still has a decent amount of equity. This is especially true when there are low draws on the board (but not the case here).

[/ QUOTE ]
Phil, this is a right on. I got stacked today (yet again) holding middle set vs. top set. Until today, when I flopped middle set I used to say to myself, "Set vs. set is rare and that fearing top set is weak-tight thinking that costs more money than it saves." Set vs. set situations may be rare, but it does happen. And when you have middle set and someone plays back at you, considering your equity vs. other likely draws vs. the dangers of running into a bigger set and the risk/reward of continuing might not be there.
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  #7  
Old 12-19-2005, 02:26 AM
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Default Re: Pl 25 middle set

Your post got me thinking, so I did the math of an all in with a NAKED middle set (no other nut features):

Math of Top Set vs Middle Set Heads Up:

If they have top set, you have:

10% chance of winning (assume a backdoor as well as 1 out [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])
90% chance of losing

If they don't have top set, but another common all in hand like a double draw, flush + low draw, straight + low draw, wrap draw, etc:

60% equity for you
40% equity for them

Assume S% of the time they have top set, the rest of the time they don't. We need to find the break even point.

0 = 60(100-S) - 40(100-S) - 90S + 10S

6000-60S - 4000 + 40S - 90S + 10S = 0

2000 - 100S = 0

S = 20%

Thus, if they have top set more than 20% of the time, you're losing money in the long run by playing this way. Against a tight or solid player, you're definitely losing money in this spot. (Obviously pot odds can factor in but if you're facing a stack committing pot (re)raise from a good player, these are the numbers). I won't even consider bottom set here as most decent players throw it away to action or won't aggressively reraise it.

Of course, if you're up against fishy or overly aggressive players, getting all in is the right course of action, but again not ridiculously profitable. Against a 70/30 (just a flush draw, or just a low draw) you stil need them to have top set less than 33% of the time just to break even. The fact that they may have bottom set does add some equity and against weaker players it's a clear all in.
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  #8  
Old 12-19-2005, 09:57 AM
cjs cjs is offline
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Default Re: Pl 25 middle set

Phil your correct about watching your pokertracker stats as we have played fewer than 100 hands together. So I may have caught you on a more aggressive session than usual. Against a player who has more normal stats ( like you state in your post ) I would take a much more careful line. I think I let the pokertracker read influence how I played the hand. A "solid" player forces me to consider folding to this much action. I just couldn't put you on the higher set.
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  #9  
Old 12-19-2005, 06:18 PM
cjs cjs is offline
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Default Re: Pl 25 middle set

For those of you who care Phil did have the top set so I was in big trouble. However I was able to put a badbeat on him by runner runner for the nut flush.

I don't know how much the backdoor flush or low adds to my outs but I'd guess they were worth about 1 out each - so maybe I had 3 outs total. Will have to watch my reads before getting in too deep with middle set.
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  #10  
Old 12-19-2005, 07:05 PM
blumpkin22 blumpkin22 is offline
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Default Re: Pl 25 middle set

Fold preflop.
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