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  #21  
Old 12-30-2005, 12:50 PM
tigerite tigerite is offline
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Default Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....

Fold for t400 in a pot of a bazillion? Er, yeah. Okay then.

Hint: He ain't folding. Ever.
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  #22  
Old 12-30-2005, 12:56 PM
GtrHtr GtrHtr is offline
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Default Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....

[ QUOTE ]
I would call here, not push, just flat call.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is correct to me. Also, its pretty easy to see why SNGPT says this is -EV.
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  #23  
Old 12-30-2005, 12:59 PM
xLukex xLukex is offline
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Default Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....

Yeah, call. If you push and BB folds you will make this face. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

If you get it all in on a good flop BB has to beat both of you to get you out in 4th.
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  #24  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:04 PM
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Default Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....

[ QUOTE ]
Fold for t400 in a pot of a bazillion? Er, yeah. Okay then.

Hint: He ain't folding. Ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

You say he will never fold to a raise of 400 into a pot of 1710. He would be getting 3.3:1 pot odds. The big blind, calling the raise and call/push from you will be getting 5:1 pot odds.

-So first of all, based only on pot odds, the big blind is much more likely to call than the CO.
-Second of all, there is a decent chance (I'd estimate 25-50%) that the CO was trying to raise to isolate the BB who had random cards versus the CO's slightly better than random hands. Faced with a reraise from someone who would fold with anything but a monster (short stack putting his life on the line when another short stack is about to go out), even with the 3.3:1 pot odds, he might fold.
-Third, this is a $22, so neither player will probably look at pot odds. There is a pretty good chance (edit: my estimate is 25%, given this is a $22) the CO is a donk, and he might say "oh, my steal didn't work, i'll let the Button knock this guy out". If he is a decent player he might call based on pot odds. If he is a good-great player, he might fold based on the fact you wouldn't raise without a monster.

Thanks for the "hint".
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  #25  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:07 PM
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Default Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....

Good analysis AggieYank. This type of thinking is much more valuable than EV estimates spit out by SnGPT, which are too sensitive to assumptions (GIGO) and can't cover all the variables.

To me, this is a "must play" for the reasons AggieYank put forth, but it is not a push, not yet at least. If you push now, BB could fold in the hope you will get knocked out. He may be unlikely to fold, but it also may be that's his only chance if you push and he has two worthless cards.
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  #26  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:15 PM
Sykes Sykes is offline
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Default Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold for t400 in a pot of a bazillion? Er, yeah. Okay then.

Hint: He ain't folding. Ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

Apparently you can spend over a year reading this forum and still be a jackass, I'm dissapointed.

You say he will never fold to a raise of 400 into a pot of 1710. He would be getting 3.3:1 pot odds. The big blind, calling the raise and call/push from you will be getting 5:1 pot odds.

-So first of all, based only on pot odds, the big blind is much more likely to call than the CO.
-Second of all, there is a decent chance (I'd estimate 25-50%) that the CO was trying to raise to isolate the BB who had random cards versus the CO's slightly better than random hands. Faced with a reraise from someone who would fold with anything but a monster (short stack putting his life on the line when another short stack is about to go out), even with the 3.3:1 pot odds, he might fold.
-Third, this is a $22, so neither player will probably look at pot odds. There is a pretty good chance the CO is a donk, and he might say "oh, my steal didn't work, i'll let the Button knock this guy out". If he is a decent player he might call based on pot odds. If he is a good-great player, he might fold based on the fact you wouldn't raise without a monster.

Thanks for the "hint".

[/ QUOTE ]


Getting 3.3 to 1 on his money there is not a single hand he'd fold here, not even 32o and I'm willing to wager that his hand is a lot better than 32o (or other random junk) since BB is shortstacked (2xbb) and they're on the bubble. Honestly, I don't expect anything less than Ax+/K9+/QT+/22+.


I actually think it's correct to fold here, but I'd never do it. I'd call and hope BB calls also.
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  #27  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:16 PM
Jbrochu Jbrochu is offline
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Default Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....

[ QUOTE ]
This is an auto fold. Yes, you are well ahead of his range, but you have to understand that when you lose here you are losing $11.50 in equity. When you win here you only have $15.00 equity in the tourney. If cutoff takes out the short stack your equity jumps up to $12.65.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like folding because the cutoff's range is very large, and even though the BB has a random hand he could easily double-up and now his stack size is close to yours.

I call this. If the BB calls I'll try to check it down unless I make trips or better on the flop then I push.

If the BB folds then I'm pushing any flop that doesn't have an A.
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  #28  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:18 PM
Sykes Sykes is offline
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Posts: 231
Default Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....

[ QUOTE ]
Good analysis AggieYank. This type of thinking is much more valuable than EV estimates spit out by SnGPT, which are too sensitive to assumptions (GIGO) and can't cover all the variables.

To me, this is a "must play" for the reasons AggieYank put forth, but it is not a push, not yet at least. If you push now, BB could fold in the hope you will get knocked out. He may be unlikely to fold, but it also may be that's his only chance if you push and he has two worthless cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I'm BB and I see Button push, I fold any hand that's not KK/AA and I'd be taking my time to call with KK.
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  #29  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:23 PM
eastbay eastbay is offline
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Posts: 647
Default Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....

[ QUOTE ]
Good analysis AggieYank. This type of thinking is much more valuable than EV estimates spit out by SnGPT, which are too sensitive to assumptions (GIGO) and can't cover all the variables.

To me, this is a "must play" for the reasons AggieYank put forth, but it is not a push, not yet at least. If you push now, BB could fold in the hope you will get knocked out. He may be unlikely to fold, but it also may be that's his only chance if you push and he has two worthless cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? I think your action reads need a little work. If you push, BB is folding effectively 100% of the time.

eastbay
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  #30  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:24 PM
Sykes Sykes is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 231
Default Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Good analysis AggieYank. This type of thinking is much more valuable than EV estimates spit out by SnGPT, which are too sensitive to assumptions (GIGO) and can't cover all the variables.

To me, this is a "must play" for the reasons AggieYank put forth, but it is not a push, not yet at least. If you push now, BB could fold in the hope you will get knocked out. He may be unlikely to fold, but it also may be that's his only chance if you push and he has two worthless cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? I think your action reads need a little work. If you push, BB is folding effectively 100% of the time.

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

except this time, right?
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